The School of Odds
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IFK Norrkoping v Örebro SK

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Norrkoping (Local)

Prediction 49.28%2.03fair odd
EV -7.36%
Edge -3.92%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.22%49.28%49.28%49.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.831.831.8856.50%54.53%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro SK (Visit)

Prediction 24.64%4.06fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%24.64%24.64%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.693.653.8528.17%27.08%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.09%26.09%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.483.453.6029.85%28.76%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IFK Norrkoping (Local): 49.28%; Örebro SK (Visit): 24.64%; Draw: 26.09%. For Örebro SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -5.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.36%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -5.14%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.36%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -5.14%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 17:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.36%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -5.14%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.36%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -5.14%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-14 17:44
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:45
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:44
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:45
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:44
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -10.07%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 17:45
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -11.30%E -6.28%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -11.30%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.30%E -3.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-14 17:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.34%EV -12.78%E -7.22%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.60%EV -12.54%E -3.53%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-14 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.34%EV -12.78%E -7.22%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.60%EV -12.54%E -3.53%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-14 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.