Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF v Djurgardens IF

Inicio: 2026-09-03 17:00 UTC

Final: Mjällby AIF 0–2 Djurgardens IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mjällby AIF (Local)

Predicción 19.66%5.09momio equitativo
EV -1.72%
Ventaja -0.344%
Kelly -0.430%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.36%19.66%19.67%20.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.684.755.0023.81%21.35%21.05%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Djurgardens IF (Visitante)

Predicción 57.57%1.74momio equitativo
EV -2.12%
Ventaja -1.25%
Kelly -3.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.85%57.48%57.52%59.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.611.611.7065.79%62.03%62.11%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.77%4.39momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -0.650%
Kelly -0.849%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.19%22.85%22.80%24.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.753.994.004.2726.67%25.08%25.00%23.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mjällby AIF (Local): 19.66%; Djurgardens IF (Visitante): 57.57%; Empate: 22.77%. Para Mjällby AIF (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.09. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 5.00, con un valor esperado de -1.72%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.430%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.76%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.430%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.76%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.430%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.76%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-03 16:40
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.430%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -1.72%E -0.344%K -0.430%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 12:45
GTbets🎯4.91I 20.37%NM 19.55%EV -3.49%E -0.710%K -0.892%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.46%EV -2.12%E -1.25%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 14:09
Pinnacle🎯4.87I 20.53%NM 19.64%EV -4.27%E -0.878%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.96%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.40%EV -2.78%E -0.650%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯4.83I 20.70%NM 19.75%EV -5.06%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.44%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 12:24
LowVig.ag🎯4.83I 20.70%NM 19.75%EV -5.06%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.44%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 12:24
Coolbet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.05%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.30%EV -3.27%E -1.95%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -3.23%E -0.760%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 16:50
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.37%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 16:40
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 16:44
Betsson🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.06%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 16:19
NordicBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -5.65%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.06%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 16:19
LeoVegas🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.61%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.37%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.37%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 15:50
BetUS🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.76%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -5.51%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:29
Grosvenor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:40
Casumo🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:45
Unibet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:40
betPARX🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 15:55
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 14:49
betano_uk🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.20%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 16:35
Bet Victor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.20%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 16:32
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 14:50
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -6.63%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 16:19
Bovada🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.34%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -5.51%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 16:55
BetAnything🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -7.62%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.34%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -5.51%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 16:55
1xBet🎯4.68I 21.37%NM 20.02%EV -8.01%E -1.71%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.13%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 16:45
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 16:45
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 16:20
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 16:19
Betr (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.19%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.17%EV -11.20%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.45%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.95%EV -10.52%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 12:59
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 13:00
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -9.58%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 12:59
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.37%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -11.20%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 16:45
BetRivers🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.46%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -12.34%E -3.20%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 16:40
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-03 16:45
TABtouch🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -11.55%E -2.57%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.72%EV -12.49%E -8.21%K -24.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%EV -12.34%E -3.20%K -4.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-03 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -13.51%E -3.07%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.32%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.92%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -13.51%E -3.07%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -13.51%E -3.07%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%EV -13.51%E -3.07%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.48%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-03 16:40
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -14.89%E -3.44%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -7.88%E -4.93%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 16:45
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.77%EV -17.44%E -4.15%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 56.28%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.95%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-03 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-03 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-03 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-03 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-03 16:45
Matchbook◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-03 16:25