Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius v Västerås SK

Inicio: 2026-04-18 13:02 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 4–1 Västerås SK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

IK Sirius (Local)

Predicción 61.13%1.64momio equitativo
EV -4.03%
Ventaja -2.57%
Kelly -7.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.35%61.22%61.21%64.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.501.501.5772.46%66.81%66.67%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Västerås SK (Visitante)

Predicción 16.50%6.06momio equitativo
EV +11.37%
Ventaja +1.68%
Kelly +1.98%
Crecimiento +0.225%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.39%16.39%16.46%17.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.825.756.7520.00%17.19%17.39%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.38%4.47momio equitativo
EV +2.93%
Ventaja +0.636%
Kelly +0.813%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.31%22.40%22.33%24.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.504.134.204.6028.57%24.20%23.81%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: IK Sirius (Local): 61.13%; Västerås SK (Visitante): 16.50%; Empate: 22.38%. Para Västerås SK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.06. 14 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.37%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.13%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.54%EV +11.37%E +1.68%K +1.98%G +0.225%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33%EV +2.93%E +0.636%K +0.813%G +0.024%1.9%2026-04-18 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.13%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.54%EV +11.37%E +1.68%K +1.98%G +0.225%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33%EV +2.93%E +0.636%K +0.813%G +0.024%1.9%2026-04-18 13:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.13%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.54%EV +11.37%E +1.68%K +1.98%G +0.225%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.33%EV +2.93%E +0.636%K +0.813%G +0.024%1.9%2026-04-18 13:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.47%EV +11.37%E +1.68%K +1.98%G +0.225%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.70%EV +0.688%E +0.153%K +0.196%G +0.001%2.4%2026-04-18 12:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.93%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV +7.24%E +1.11%K +1.32%G +0.095%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV +0.688%E +0.153%K +0.196%G +0.001%4.3%2026-04-18 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.93%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV +7.24%E +1.11%K +1.32%G +0.095%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV +0.688%E +0.153%K +0.196%G +0.001%4.3%2026-04-18 13:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.78%EV -8.92%E -5.99%K -18.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.62%EV +7.24%E +1.11%K +1.32%G +0.095%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -1.55%E -0.352%K -0.456%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 13:00
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.94%EV -9.53%E -6.44%K -19.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +7.24%E +1.11%K +1.32%G +0.095%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -1.55%E -0.352%K -0.456%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 13:00
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.95%EV -11.37%E -7.84%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.49%EV +5.59%E +0.874%K +1.04%G +0.058%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.95%EV -11.37%E -7.84%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.49%EV +5.59%E +0.874%K +1.04%G +0.058%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 13:00
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.95%EV -11.37%E -7.84%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.49%EV +5.59%E +0.874%K +1.04%G +0.058%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 13:00
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.95%EV -11.37%E -7.84%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.49%EV +5.59%E +0.874%K +1.04%G +0.058%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 13:00
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.95%EV -11.98%E -8.32%K -27.22%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.39%EV +5.59%E +0.874%K +1.04%G +0.058%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 12:56
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.89%EV -12.59%E -8.80%K -29.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV +3.12%E +0.499%K +0.594%G +0.018%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 13:00
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.57%EV -4.03%E -2.57%K -7.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.11%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.32%EV -3.12%E -0.720%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-18 13:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 12:59
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -9.53%E -6.44%K -19.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 13:00
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -11.37%E -7.84%K -25.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 13:00
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -11.98%E -8.32%K -27.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.83%EV -15.65%E -11.34%K -41.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.68%EV -1.01%E -0.168%K -0.202%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.49%EV -8.26%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-18 13:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.40%EV -4.64%E -2.98%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.37%EV -3.48%E -0.595%K -0.718%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.22%EV -3.56%E -0.827%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-18 12:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -5.87%E -3.81%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV -4.31%E -0.743%K -0.897%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 12:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -5.87%E -3.81%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV -4.31%E -0.743%K -0.897%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 13:00
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:58
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:59
BetAnything🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 12:59
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -8.26%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 12:53
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 12:59
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.09%EV -9.53%E -6.44%K -19.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -5.13%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 12:59
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 13:01
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.53%EV -4.03%E -2.57%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.48%EV -10.95%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 12:59
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 13:00
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 13:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.48%E -4.23%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-18 13:00
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 13:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 13:00
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.17%EV -10.14%E -6.90%K -21.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.35%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 13:00
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.98%E -8.32%K -27.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-18 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.76%EV -11.98%E -8.32%K -27.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -9.26%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -21.69%E -6.20%K -8.67%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-18 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.74%EV -7.09%E -4.66%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.97%EV -11.73%E -2.19%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 13:01
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.74%EV -7.09%E -4.66%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.97%EV -11.73%E -2.19%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 13:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.31%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -12.56%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 13:01
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -7.09%E -4.66%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -13.86%E -3.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-18 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 12:59
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 13:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.74%E -3.27%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 13:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.83%EV -9.53%E -6.44%K -19.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.87%EV -13.38%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -14.97%E -3.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-18 13:00
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.31%E -5.54%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -17.51%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.50%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-18 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.35%EV -8.92%E -5.99%K -18.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -17.51%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -13.86%E -3.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-18 13:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.99%EV -11.98%E -8.32%K -27.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -17.51%E -3.50%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -14.97%E -3.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-18 12:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-04-18 13:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-04-18 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-04-18 13:01
Matchbook1.55I 64.52%NM 63.32%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-04-18 13:01
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 62.57%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%2.5%2026-04-18 13:01