The School of Odds
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IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg

2026-10-18 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 47.13%2.12fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.89%47.13%47.13%50.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.961.962.0758.82%51.10%50.89%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Elfsborg (Visit)

Prediction 27.03%3.70fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.46%27.03%27.03%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.403.5531.75%29.73%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%25.85%25.85%26.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.533.553.7029.85%28.30%28.17%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: IK Sirius (Local): 47.13%; IF Elfsborg (Visit): 27.03%; Draw: 25.85%. For IK Sirius (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.07, with an expected value of -2.45%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 12:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 12:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -2.45%E -1.18%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-11 12:04
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:05
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:04
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -4.80%E -2.38%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.11%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -6.69%E -3.38%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -10.81%E -3.28%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 12:04
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.41%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.37%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 12:05
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.41%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.66%E -1.55%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 12:50
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.16%E -3.74%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.12%E -3.57%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 12:04
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.57%E -4.42%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.16%E -3.74%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -12.12%E -3.57%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-11 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.89%EV -9.04%E -4.69%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.51%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -13.42%E -4.00%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-11 12:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.89%EV -9.04%E -4.69%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.51%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -13.42%E -4.00%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-11 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.77%EV -13.29%E -7.22%K -15.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -13.51%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.76%EV -8.25%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-11 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.25%EV -14.23%E -7.82%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.45%EV -10.27%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.31%EV -10.31%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-11 12:03
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.50%EV -14.23%E -7.82%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.44%EV -14.87%E -4.72%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.06%EV -10.83%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-11 12:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.17%EV -19.88%E -11.70%K -28.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.46%EV -9.46%E -2.82%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.37%EV -9.54%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-11 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 47.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.53%13.5%2026-10-11 12:10