The School of Odds
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IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 12:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 2–2 IF Elfsborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 45.33%2.21fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.538%
Kelly -0.994%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.14%45.47%45.19%47.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.042.052.1853.76%48.98%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Elfsborg (Visit)

Prediction 28.85%3.47fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.72%28.78%28.89%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.203.203.6034.72%31.24%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.869%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.58%25.75%25.92%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.553.7830.30%28.28%28.17%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Sirius (Local): 45.33%; IF Elfsborg (Visit): 28.85%; Draw: 25.82%. For IF Elfsborg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.92%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV +3.86%E +1.07%K +1.49%G +0.057%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -5.77%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 11:53
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.01%EV -8.43%E -4.17%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.60%EV -0.755%E -0.219%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.39%EV -3.45%E -0.922%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 11:59
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -1.91%E -0.561%K -0.795%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 11:59
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.26%EV -6.16%E -2.98%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.41%EV -2.77%E -0.823%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.33%EV -2.42%E -0.639%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 11:59
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.65%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.26%EV -3.06%E -0.912%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.09%EV -6.03%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%EV -1.17%E -0.538%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -3.35%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-18 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.99%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.35%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.99%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.35%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 11:49
BetAnything🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.89%EV -6.61%E -3.21%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -3.35%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.77%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 11:59
GTbets🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.07%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.07%EV -3.64%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.86%EV -9.90%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 11:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.01%EV -6.61%E -3.21%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.19%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.01%EV -6.61%E -3.21%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.19%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 11:49
Bovada🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -7.52%E -3.69%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 11:54
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -7.52%E -3.69%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 11:59
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -13.87%E -7.30%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 11:59
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.01%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.77%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -5.71%E -2.74%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 11:34
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.36%EV -7.97%E -3.93%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 11:34
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:59
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 11:34
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:49
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:49
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:49
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -4.80%E -2.29%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 11:35
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:49
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 11:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 11:49
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 11:49
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 11:54
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 11:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 11:49
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 11:35
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 11:35
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 11:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 11:49
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.52%E -3.69%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 11:49
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.52%E -3.69%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 11:49
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:34
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:38
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.11%EV -10.24%E -5.17%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.00%EV -11.14%E -3.62%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 11:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.07%E -3.45%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-18 11:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 11:34
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.14%EV -8.43%E -4.17%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -13.52%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 11:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -13.52%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -13.52%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 11:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.36%EV -15.68%E -8.43%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.27%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-18 11:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -9.33%E -4.67%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.45%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 11:35
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.76%EV -11.60%E -5.95%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.31%EV -16.91%E -5.87%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -9.64%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-18 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-18 11:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-18 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-18 11:55
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-18 11:45
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%1.6%2026-10-18 11:50