Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF

2026-08-31 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan - Sweden

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Djurgardens IF (Local)

Predicción 59.27%1.69momio equitativo
EV -3.98%
Ventaja -2.46%
Kelly -6.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.68%59.38%59.18%62.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.521.501.6269.44%65.80%66.45%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mjällby AIF (Visitante)

Predicción 19.13%5.23momio equitativo
EV +16.70%
Ventaja +2.74%
Kelly +3.27%
Crecimiento +0.547%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.97%19.07%19.23%21.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.255.085.056.1023.53%19.67%19.80%16.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.60%4.63momio equitativo
EV -0.653%
Ventaja -0.142%
Kelly -0.182%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.39%21.56%21.59%22.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.234.204.6026.32%23.66%23.81%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Djurgardens IF (Local): 59.27%; Mjällby AIF (Visitante): 19.13%; Empate: 21.60%. Para Mjällby AIF (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.23. 18 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.10, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +16.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.85%EV -8.13%E -5.24%K -14.78%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +16.70%E +2.74%K +3.27%G +0.547%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV -0.653%E -0.142%K -0.182%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-24 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.85%EV -8.13%E -5.24%K -14.78%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +16.70%E +2.74%K +3.27%G +0.547%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV -0.653%E -0.142%K -0.182%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-24 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.85%EV -8.13%E -5.24%K -14.78%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +16.70%E +2.74%K +3.27%G +0.547%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV -0.653%E -0.142%K -0.182%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-24 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +7.13%E +1.27%K +1.55%G +0.111%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:09
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.62%EV -10.50%E -6.95%K -20.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV +3.30%E +0.612%K +0.751%G +0.025%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-24 17:14
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -8.13%E -5.24%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +1.39%E +0.263%K +0.324%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 19:34
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -8.13%E -5.24%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +1.39%E +0.263%K +0.324%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV +1.39%E +0.263%K +0.324%G +0.005%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-24 17:14
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.13%EV -12.87%E -8.75%K -27.38%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.95%EV +1.39%E +0.263%K +0.324%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-24 17:09
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.45%EV -14.05%E -9.69%K -31.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.81%EV +1.39%E +0.263%K +0.324%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.73%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.36%EV -14.05%E -9.69%K -31.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV +0.435%E +0.083%K +0.102%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-24 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.36%EV -14.05%E -9.69%K -31.23%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV +0.435%E +0.083%K +0.102%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-24 17:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.52%EV -14.65%E -10.17%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.87%EV +0.435%E +0.083%K +0.102%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-24 17:09
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.32%EV -3.98%E -2.46%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.84%EV -2.43%E -0.477%K -0.594%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-24 19:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -6.35%E -4.02%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -4.35%E -0.869%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 17:20
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -9.31%E -6.09%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -4.35%E -0.869%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 17:14
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.18%EV -9.91%E -6.52%K -19.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -4.35%E -0.869%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-24 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -4.35%E -0.869%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -6.48%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 17:14
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -4.35%E -0.869%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-24 17:14
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.31%EV -6.35%E -4.02%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.05%EV -5.88%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.64%EV -6.48%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-24 17:24
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.18%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -8.17%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -6.48%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-24 17:20
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.91%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.64%EV -8.36%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -0.653%E -0.142%K -0.182%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-24 18:29
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -12.00%E -2.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -12.00%E -2.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 17:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -12.00%E -2.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 17:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -12.00%E -2.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 17:20
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.44%EV -14.65%E -10.17%K -33.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.61%EV -12.00%E -2.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.95%EV -15.77%E -4.04%K -5.44%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-24 17:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.24%EV -12.87%E -8.75%K -27.38%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.24%EV -14.87%E -3.34%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -17.93%E -4.72%K -6.40%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-24 17:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.28%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.87%EV -15.83%E -3.60%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-24 17:20
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -6.94%E -4.42%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -17.16%E -3.96%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -2.81%E -0.625%K -0.804%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 17:49
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.70%EV -11.09%E -7.39%K -22.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -17.16%E -3.96%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-24 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.01%EV -11.68%E -7.84%K -23.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.10%EV -17.74%E -4.13%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -14.69%E -3.72%K -4.98%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-24 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.02%EV -10.50%E -6.95%K -20.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.61%EV -18.70%E -4.40%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-24 17:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 58.13%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%13.2%2026-08-24 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-24 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-24 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-24 13:09
Arbitraje (12 combinaciones) +0.14%Coolbet 1.62 (61.8%) / Unibet (SE) 6.10 (16.4%) / Unibet (SE) 4.60 (21.8%)Ver las 12 combinaciones
Djurgardens IF (Local)Mjällby AIF (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Pinnacle🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 6.10 (16.4%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Pinnacle🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Svenska Spel🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)ATG (SE)🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%
Coolbet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Pinnacle🎯 4.60 (21.8%)+0.139%