Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Degerfors IF v Halmstads BK

Inicio: 2026-09-05 13:00 UTC

Final: Degerfors IF 2–0 Halmstads BK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Degerfors IF (Local)

Predicción 49.14%2.04momio equitativo
EV -4.18%
Ventaja -2.15%
Kelly -4.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.54%49.01%49.27%51.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.871.891.9556.82%53.42%52.91%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Halmstads BK (Visitante)

Predicción 23.82%4.20momio equitativo
EV +3.60%
Ventaja +0.828%
Kelly +1.08%
Crecimiento +0.039%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.34%23.78%23.78%25.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.903.854.3528.57%25.67%25.97%22.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.05%3.70momio equitativo
EV +0.075%
Ventaja +0.020%
Kelly +0.028%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.18%27.20%26.95%29.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.413.403.7032.26%29.35%29.41%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Degerfors IF (Local): 49.14%; Halmstads BK (Visitante): 23.82%; Empate: 27.05%. Para Halmstads BK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.20. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.35, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.60%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -7.13%E -3.77%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%EV +3.60%E +0.828%K +1.08%G +0.039%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%EV +0.075%E +0.020%K +0.028%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -7.13%E -3.77%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%EV +3.60%E +0.828%K +1.08%G +0.039%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%EV +0.075%E +0.020%K +0.028%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -7.13%E -3.77%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%EV +3.60%E +0.828%K +1.08%G +0.039%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%EV +0.075%E +0.020%K +0.028%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.50%EV -6.64%E -3.50%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV +0.031%E +0.007%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV -2.63%E -0.731%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 20:10
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.81%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.09%EV -1.87%E -0.455%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.10%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:04
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:04
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:04
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.18%EV -7.62%E -4.06%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.80%EV -4.79%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 21:45
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:20
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:20
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:20
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -10.08%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 13:18
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -5.17%E -2.68%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -2.35%E -0.573%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -16.15%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 04:15
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.64%EV -7.13%E -3.77%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -3.54%E -0.875%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 14:10
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.61%EV -7.13%E -3.77%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.21%EV -3.78%E -0.936%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:15
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.73%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:00
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -5.66%E -2.95%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.92%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 13:05
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.62%E -4.06%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -5.92%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 05:05
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.62%E -4.06%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -5.92%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 05:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.11%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 10:05
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.17%EV -12.05%E -6.73%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -7.11%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -9.39%E -2.80%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 13:20
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.31%EV -12.54%E -7.04%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -7.11%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -9.39%E -2.80%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 00:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.52%E -7.68%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.31%E -2.16%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.52%E -7.68%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.31%E -2.16%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.52%E -7.68%K -17.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.31%E -2.16%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -9.59%E -5.21%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.76%EV -8.78%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.77%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 13:10
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.18%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 00:21
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 06:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.33%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 13:00
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 06:54
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 02:55
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 02:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 02:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 02:55
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 16:50
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.50%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 21:43
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -4.18%E -2.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -10.69%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 00:20
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.69%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 00:20
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -8.12%E -4.34%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -10.69%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 13:10
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -11.56%E -6.42%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -10.69%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.99%EV -13.03%E -7.36%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -10.69%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -9.39%E -2.80%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 13:10
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -11.88%E -3.21%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 00:25
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -11.88%E -3.21%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 00:20
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.15%E -3.22%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -11.88%E -3.21%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.04%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 00:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.08%EV -9.59%E -5.21%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -13.07%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -6.64%E -3.50%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -10.74%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.81%EV -10.57%E -5.81%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -9.39%E -2.80%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-02 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 09:04
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 08:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 08:59
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.26%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 09:00
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -16.64%E -4.75%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-04 00:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-09-04 13:05
Matchbook◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-09-04 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00%1.5%2026-09-04 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00%1.5%2026-09-04 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-09-04 13:00