The School of Odds
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St Mirren v Hibernian

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:45 UTC

Final: St Mirren 1–1 Hibernian

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Mirren (Local)

Prediction 28.39%3.52fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.372%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.40%28.39%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.263.253.4932.79%30.71%30.77%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hibernian (Visit)

Prediction 44.45%2.25fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.05%44.41%44.40%45.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.102.102.1852.36%47.73%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV +0.516%
Edge +0.139%
Kelly +0.191%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%27.19%27.20%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.7031.25%29.32%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Mirren (Local): 28.39%; Hibernian (Visit): 44.45%; Draw: 27.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.516%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -4.90%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.87%EV -4.00%E -1.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%EV +0.516%E +0.139%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.2%2026-10-28 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -4.90%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.87%EV -4.00%E -1.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%EV +0.516%E +0.139%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.2%2026-10-28 18:50
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -5.78%E -2.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.20%E -0.611%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.20%E -0.611%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 19:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.20%E -0.611%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 19:30
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.73%EV -0.925%E -0.265%K -0.372%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.23%EV -4.89%E -2.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.04%EV -2.74%E -0.767%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-28 19:30
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 19:20
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:24
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:23
Bet Right🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 18:50
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.89%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.92%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-28 19:28
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -9.16%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -5.78%E -2.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 19:30
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.63%EV -8.44%E -4.10%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 18:50
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.63%EV -8.44%E -4.10%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 18:50
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -3.11%E -1.43%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 19:25
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 18:55
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 19:20
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 18:53
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -6.60%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -5.78%E -2.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 18:55
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.90%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:20
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.90%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.36%EV -6.89%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.29%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 18:55
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 19:20
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 19:20
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:30
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.00%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-28 19:30
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.16%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.89%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 19:30
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.16%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 19:20
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -12.00%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -10.22%E -5.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -7.63%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-28 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.78%E -2.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.78%E -2.72%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:20
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:30
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.54%EV -8.00%E -3.86%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 19:25
BetUS🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.32%E -1.91%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.54%EV -8.00%E -3.86%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.99%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 19:30
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.48%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.89%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 19:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -10.58%E -3.36%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -12.00%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.93%EV -9.33%E -4.57%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -12.00%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.93%EV -9.33%E -4.57%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.35%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 19:30
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.71%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 18:55
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.71%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.71%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.74%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -4.44%E -2.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -11.71%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -12.00%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.36%EV -11.55%E -5.81%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -11.71%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-28 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.17%EV -13.42%E -4.40%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.98%EV -15.11%E -7.91%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.07%E -4.08%K -5.94%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-28 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-10-28 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-10-28 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-10-28 19:30
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-10-28 19:30
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07%1.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-10-28 19:20

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