The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St Johnstone v Motherwell

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:44 UTC

Final: St Johnstone 2–2 Motherwell

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Johnstone (Local)

Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%38.03%37.87%40.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.452.5345.45%41.41%40.82%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Motherwell (Visit)

Prediction 34.32%2.91fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.418%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.95%34.25%34.43%35.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.742.752.9539.22%36.50%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.76%3.60fair odd
EV -0.060%
Edge -0.017%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.50%27.73%27.70%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.353.6031.25%29.82%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Johnstone (Local): 37.92%; Motherwell (Visit): 34.32%; Draw: 27.76%. For Motherwell (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%EV -7.85%E -3.23%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.97%EV +1.23%E +0.418%K +0.632%G +0.008%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV -0.060%E -0.017%K -0.023%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-28 19:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%EV -7.85%E -3.23%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.97%EV +1.23%E +0.418%K +0.632%G +0.008%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.01%EV -0.060%E -0.017%K -0.023%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-28 19:09
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.23%EV -4.05%E -1.60%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%EV -1.17%E -0.406%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.20%EV -4.78%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -14.67%E -6.52%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -2.20%E -0.772%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:00
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 13:43
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -10.88%E -4.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -10.88%E -4.63%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:09
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 16:20
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 16:49
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:10
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:09
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:09
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:10
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.67%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.92%E -1.40%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -4.43%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.95%EV -4.60%E -1.66%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-28 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.45%EV -4.43%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.95%EV -4.60%E -1.66%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-28 19:25
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 18:55
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 18:55
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -8.23%E -3.40%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 19:09
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -8.23%E -3.40%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 19:10
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.98%E -3.74%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 19:10
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-28 16:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-28 16:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-28 16:20
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-28 16:20
Bovada🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.10%EV -8.23%E -3.40%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 19:15
BetUS🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.10%EV -8.23%E -3.40%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -5.63%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 19:14
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -0.060%E -0.017%K -0.023%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-28 14:34
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-28 16:30
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -2.84%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:13
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -2.84%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:13
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 18:55
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 16:20
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -13.54%E -5.94%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-28 19:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -14.67%E -6.52%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-28 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -14.67%E -6.52%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -7.35%E -2.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-28 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.84%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.84%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 08:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.19%E -2.08%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 22:02
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.09%E -2.89%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 08:25
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.90%EV -4.43%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.01%EV -7.83%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.90%EV -4.43%E -1.76%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -9.06%E -3.42%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.01%EV -7.83%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 13:29
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.98%E -3.74%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.78%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -5.61%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-28 14:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -7.85%E -3.23%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -10.78%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 22:05
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.74%E -4.09%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -10.78%E -4.15%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-28 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -12.02%E -5.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.35%EV -11.81%E -4.59%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-28 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -16.57%E -7.53%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.97%EV -12.49%E -4.90%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.65%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-28 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-28 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-28 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-28 19:15
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-28 19:15
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-10-28 19:20
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-10-28 19:15

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