Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Johnstone v Kilmarnock

Inicio: 2026-08-02 13:00 UTC

Final: St Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Johnstone (Local)

Predicción 47.16%2.12momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -3.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.92%47.09%47.09%48.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.981.982.0554.64%50.61%50.51%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kilmarnock (Visitante)

Predicción 26.18%3.82momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.274%
Kelly -0.372%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.26%26.27%26.21%28.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.573.553.7830.77%28.03%28.17%26.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.66%3.75momio equitativo
EV -0.033%
Ventaja -0.009%
Kelly -0.012%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.43%26.64%26.71%27.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.493.503.7530.30%28.67%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St Johnstone (Local): 47.16%; Kilmarnock (Visitante): 26.18%; Empate: 26.66%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.751. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.750, con un valor esperado de -0.033%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -0.033%E -0.009%K -0.012%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 12:49
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:45
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:45
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.83%EV -4.74%E -2.34%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.56%EV -1.03%E -0.274%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.61%EV -3.23%E -0.890%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.83%EV -4.74%E -2.34%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.56%EV -1.03%E -0.274%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.61%EV -3.23%E -0.890%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 12:50
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.44%EV -4.74%E -2.34%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.49%EV -1.56%E -0.414%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.07%EV -5.63%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 12:54
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.77%EV -4.74%E -2.34%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 12:44
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 12:50
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 12:44
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 12:50
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 12:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 12:44
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 12:45
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 12:50
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 12:55
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 12:55
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -6.15%E -3.09%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.43%EV -1.03%E -0.274%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.26%EV -2.43%E -0.665%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.11%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -5.22%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -8.30%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 12:54
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 12:50
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.08%EV -7.09%E -3.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.08%EV -7.09%E -3.60%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.56%E -3.86%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.56%E -3.86%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.56%E -3.86%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -7.56%E -3.86%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.70%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 12:49
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 12:49
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 12:44
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 12:44
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.03%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 12:44
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -14.91%E -4.59%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-02 12:45
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 12:55
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 12:55
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 12:55
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 12:55
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:44
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 12:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.70%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 12:55
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.02%EV -9.45%E -4.92%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.85%EV -9.45%E -4.92%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 12:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.92%E -5.20%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.07%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -10.70%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-02 12:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.94%EV -10.39%E -5.47%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.94%EV -10.39%E -5.47%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.07%EV -10.87%E -5.75%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.03%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 12:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.96%EV -13.70%E -7.48%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -12.03%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 12:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.60%0.3%2026-08-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.60%0.3%2026-08-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-08-02 12:55
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-08-02 12:55
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-08-02 12:55
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.56%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-02 12:50