Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Johnstone v Celtic

Inicio: 2026-09-09 19:00 UTC

Final: St Johnstone 0–1 Celtic

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Johnstone (Local)

Predicción 13.96%7.16momio equitativo
EV +4.68%
Ventaja +0.624%
Kelly +0.720%
Crecimiento +0.034%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.30%14.02%13.90%15.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.806.486.407.5017.24%15.44%15.63%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celtic (Visitante)

Predicción 67.11%1.49momio equitativo
EV -3.37%
Ventaja -2.34%
Kelly -7.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.12%66.88%67.18%68.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.401.401.4475.76%71.55%71.43%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.94%5.28momio equitativo
EV +0.743%
Ventaja +0.140%
Kelly +0.172%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.14%19.10%18.92%21.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.304.784.805.3223.26%20.94%20.83%18.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St Johnstone (Local): 13.96%; Celtic (Visitante): 67.11%; Empate: 18.94%. Para St Johnstone (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.16. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.68%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV +4.68%E +0.624%K +0.720%G +0.034%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.86%EV -10.08%E -7.52%K -29.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 17:38
Coolbet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV +1.19%E +0.165%K +0.191%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.88%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 16:55
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV +1.19%E +0.165%K +0.191%G +0.002%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.09%EV -8.07%E -5.89%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Bet Victor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 17:29
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 17:25
betano_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 17:29
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:55
Bet Right🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -10.05%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 16:55
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -8.74%E -6.42%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:40
PlayUp🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -16.68%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.41%E -6.97%K -26.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 17:15
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -2.30%E -0.328%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -8.74%E -6.42%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.05%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:35
Pinnacle🎯6.94I 14.41%NM 13.90%EV -3.13%E -0.452%K -0.528%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 18.14%EV +0.743%E +0.140%K +0.172%G +0.001%3.6%2026-09-09 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯6.85I 14.60%NM 13.61%EV -4.39%E -0.641%K -0.750%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.56%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.83%EV -6.26%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:35
1xBet🎯6.83I 14.64%NM 13.71%EV -4.67%E -0.684%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.37%EV -6.72%E -4.84%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -6.26%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.74%EV -5.09%E -0.748%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -6.72%E -4.84%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.74%EV -5.09%E -0.748%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -6.72%E -4.84%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -7.21%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:40
Betsson🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.57%EV -5.09%E -0.748%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.97%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -18.57%E -4.32%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 17:35
NordicBet🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.57%EV -5.09%E -0.748%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.97%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -18.57%E -4.32%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 17:35
LeoVegas🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -5.79%E -0.857%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 17:25
Fanatics🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -9.27%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 16:51
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -9.27%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.71%EV -5.38%E -3.82%K -13.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 17:11
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -9.27%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -9.27%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.66%EV -11.42%E -8.65%K -35.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -10.67%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -11.00%E -2.34%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -10.67%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -11.00%E -2.34%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 09:05
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -10.67%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.85%EV -8.74%E -6.42%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:30
NetBet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.13%EV -12.07%E -1.92%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.93%EV -10.75%E -8.08%K -32.57%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.94%EV -11.00%E -2.34%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -12.76%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -6.26%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
BetUS🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -12.76%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -6.26%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
Grosvenor🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
Casumo🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
betPARX🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
TABtouch🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -14.86%E -2.44%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.32%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -14.79%E -3.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 09:05
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.37%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:55
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.37%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.37%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.37%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.32%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:55
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 16:55
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:10
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 17:11
PMU (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -5.38%E -3.82%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -16.68%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-08 09:05
BetRivers🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -16.68%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 09:05
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -16.25%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -8.74%E -6.42%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -10.05%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 17:16
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.48%EV -19.05%E -3.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.12%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -16.68%E -3.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-08 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.30%EV -19.05%E -3.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.30%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.40%EV -17.63%E -4.05%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 09:05
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.30%EV -19.05%E -3.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.30%EV -7.39%E -5.36%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.40%EV -17.63%E -4.05%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 09:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Matchbook◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.40%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.88%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Kalshi◎7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-09-09 17:35