The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Motherwell v St Mirren

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Final: Motherwell 1–0 St Mirren

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 51.59%1.94fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.59%51.67%51.50%53.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.801.811.8861.35%55.50%55.40%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Mirren (Visit)

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV +0.204%
Edge +0.049%
Kelly +0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.27%23.85%24.17%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.873.904.1828.17%25.82%25.64%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.43%4.09fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.379%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.32%24.48%24.33%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.783.804.0328.17%26.48%26.32%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 51.59%; St Mirren (Visit): 23.97%; Draw: 24.43%. For St Mirren (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.204%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.86%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.14%EV +0.204%E +0.049%K +0.064%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.00%EV -1.53%E -0.379%K -0.504%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 14:50
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 14:40
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -8.16%E -4.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.85%EV -8.16%E -4.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 14:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -12.29%E -7.23%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.39%EV -3.01%E -1.60%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.48%E -0.882%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.39%EV -3.01%E -1.60%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.15%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.48%E -0.882%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:40
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:40
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:40
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 14:40
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -8.68%E -4.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.16%E -4.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.38%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.36%EV -6.66%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 14:40
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.60%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.47%EV -6.66%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 14:50
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -9.20%E -5.23%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 23:30
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 14:49
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 14:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.10%E -3.35%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 23:30
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 08:00
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 08:04
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:40
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:40
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.55%E -2.46%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 08:00
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 15:00
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.93%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 23:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 13:10
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.38%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -5.93%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 23:29
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -5.59%E -3.05%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 12:05
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 14:40
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.26%E -0.565%K -0.754%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-30 15:04
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.13%E -3.96%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 15:35
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:40
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -6.62%E -3.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -7.65%E -4.27%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -11.30%E -3.05%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.62%EV -8.16%E -4.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.30%E -3.05%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-31 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.59%EV -8.68%E -4.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.53%EV -12.50%E -3.42%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.59%EV -8.68%E -4.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.53%EV -12.50%E -3.42%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.16%EV -10.74%E -6.21%K -14.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.25%EV -12.50%E -3.42%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-31 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -9.71%E -5.55%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 06:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 52.13%EV -15.90%E -9.76%K -25.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.94%EV -14.90%E -4.20%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.94%EV -13.26%E -3.73%K -5.20%G +0.000%17.7%2026-10-31 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Matchbook◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-31 14:50
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-10-31 14:40
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 52.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-10-31 14:40

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