The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Motherwell v Celtic

2026-10-11 11:00 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 18.44%5.42fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.261%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.62%18.40%18.88%20.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.014.905.5022.22%19.97%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celtic (Visit)

Prediction 60.74%1.65fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.84%60.64%60.32%63.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.541.541.6072.99%65.04%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.82%4.80fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.234%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.13%20.97%20.80%22.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.384.434.7525.32%22.84%22.60%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Motherwell (Local): 18.44%; Celtic (Visit): 60.74%; Draw: 20.82%. For Motherwell (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.42. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.50, producing a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -1.11%E -0.234%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-21 10:09
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -4.24%E -0.921%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 07:59
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 07:59
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -10.11%E -6.83%K -21.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 08:09
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV +1.43%E +0.261%K +0.319%G +0.005%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -11.93%E -8.23%K -26.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-21 08:09
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -0.410%E -0.076%K -0.093%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.58%EV -11.93%E -8.23%K -26.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -8.40%E -1.91%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 08:09
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -7.79%E -1.56%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.83%EV -3.42%E -2.15%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 12:40
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -9.63%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.71%EV -4.03%E -2.55%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -13.60%E -3.28%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 07:54
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -9.63%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.71%EV -4.03%E -2.55%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -13.60%E -3.28%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 08:09
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -9.63%E -1.97%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.40%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.40%E -1.91%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-21 07:48
Pinnacle🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.38%EV -9.82%E -2.01%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -4.03%E -2.55%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.65%EV -4.44%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-21 08:24
Unibet (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 17.34%EV -10.55%E -2.18%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 61.38%EV -16.79%E -12.25%K -45.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.29%EV -17.77%E -4.50%K -6.02%G +0.000%18.9%2026-09-21 08:09
1xBet🎯4.71I 21.23%NM 20.04%EV -13.14%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -2.82%E -1.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.32%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 07:29
Bovada🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -13.32%E -2.83%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.59%EV -5.85%E -3.78%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.76%EV -7.36%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 10:16
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -15.16%E -3.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -2.82%E -1.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -12.56%E -2.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:53
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -15.16%E -3.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -2.82%E -1.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -12.56%E -2.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:54
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -15.16%E -3.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -2.82%E -1.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -12.56%E -2.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -15.16%E -3.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -2.82%E -1.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -12.56%E -2.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:55
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -17.01%E -3.78%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.53%EV -8.89%E -5.93%K -17.78%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -9.86%E -2.28%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-21 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%9.9%2026-09-21 07:59