Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell v Celtic

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 18.02%5.55fair odd
EV -0.908%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.202%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%18.02%17.97%19.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.065.005.5021.74%19.77%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celtic (Visit)

Prediction 61.12%1.64fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -5.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.87%61.10%61.11%62.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.531.531.5871.94%65.44%65.36%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.87%4.79fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.249%
Kelly +0.314%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%20.88%20.92%22.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.424.404.8524.39%22.62%22.73%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 18.02%; Celtic (Visit): 61.12%; Draw: 20.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.37I 18.62%NM 17.88%EV -3.25%E -0.605%K -0.744%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.33%EV -5.88%E -3.82%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.79%EV +1.21%E +0.249%K +0.314%G +0.004%4.2%2026-10-11 10:50
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -0.877%E -0.185%K -0.234%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 10:50
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -8.33%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -0.877%E -0.185%K -0.234%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 10:15
FanDuel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -2.71%E -0.502%K -0.616%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.46%EV -7.72%E -5.11%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -1.92%E -0.409%K -0.519%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 10:53
LeoVegas🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -8.33%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.92%E -0.409%K -0.519%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 10:00
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.42%EV -5.88%E -3.82%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.56%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 10:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 07:55
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 07:55
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 07:55
SportsBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV -4.51%E -0.851%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.83%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 10:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.73%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.01%E -0.871%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 07:14
Pinnacle🎯5.36I 18.66%NM 17.96%EV -3.43%E -0.640%K -0.787%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.93%EV -3.44%E -2.18%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.11%EV -4.84%E -1.06%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 10:50
Coolbet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 07:30
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 10:38
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 10:39
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -8.33%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:55
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.60%EV -5.88%E -3.82%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 07:55
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 10:39
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -8.33%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:55
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -14.42%E -3.04%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.64%EV -8.33%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.09%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 07:10
Marathon Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -6.31%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.91%EV -7.14%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -6.31%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.90%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 10:54
LowVig.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -6.31%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.90%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 10:55
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 07:30
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.69%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 10:49
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:49
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -0.908%E -0.165%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -10.16%E -6.91%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:54
Codere (IT)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.51%EV -11.72%E -2.39%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -8.94%E -6.00%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.18%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -11.72%E -2.39%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.48%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -9.22%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:14
Virgin Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -11.72%E -2.39%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.48%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -9.22%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:14
Svenska Spel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -4.66%E -2.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -9.22%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:14
ATG (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -9.92%E -1.98%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.86%EV -4.66%E -2.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -9.22%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 10:14
Bovada🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.31%EV -9.02%E -1.79%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.43%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -9.22%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 10:54
PlayUp🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -5.41%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -10.27%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 10:14
BetUS🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.26%EV -9.02%E -1.79%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.27%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 10:39
Unibet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 17.95%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 62.00%EV -15.05%E -10.83%K -38.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.04%EV -10.27%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-11 10:39
Grosvenor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:14
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:14
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:15
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:14
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:14
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:14
betPARX🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -11.31%E -2.66%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:15
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -13.52%E -2.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.38%EV -10.16%E -6.91%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 10:54
NordicBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -2.71%E -0.502%K -0.616%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.69%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.23%EV -13.40%E -3.23%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 10:00
Betsson🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -2.71%E -0.502%K -0.616%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.69%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.23%EV -13.40%E -3.23%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 09:59
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -15.32%E -3.26%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.87%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -14.44%E -3.52%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -17.12%E -3.72%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -7.72%E -5.11%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -14.44%E -3.52%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 10:15
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -17.12%E -3.72%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -7.72%E -5.11%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -14.44%E -3.52%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.22%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.97%0.1%2026-10-11 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.22%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.97%0.1%2026-10-11 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.5%2026-10-11 10:55
Matchbook◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.5%2026-10-11 10:55
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.83%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-10-11 10:44
Smarkets◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.85%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-10-11 10:55