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Kilmarnock v Motherwell
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kilmarnock (Local)
Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.729%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.95%33.10%34.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.853.1037.04%35.01%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Motherwell (Visit)
Prediction 40.79%2.45fair odd
EV -0.891%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.623%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.04%40.87%40.71%43.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.252.252.4350.00%44.36%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.23%3.81fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.440%
Kelly -0.599%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%26.19%26.19%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.503.7529.41%28.24%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kilmarnock (Local): 32.99%; Motherwell (Visit): 40.79%; Draw: 26.23%. For Kilmarnock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV +2.26%E +0.729%K +1.08%G +0.024% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -7.01%E -3.07%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.65%E -0.440%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV +2.26%E +0.729%K +1.08%G +0.024% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -7.01%E -3.07%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.65%E -0.440%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.15%EV +1.60%E +0.520%K +0.770%G +0.012% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.64%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.21%EV -4.01%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -10.27%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.89%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 13:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -10.27%E -4.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.89%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -2.69%E -0.911%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.45%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.34%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 13:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -4.34%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -12.31%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.65%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%EV -0.891%E -0.367%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.48%EV -4.01%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -4.27%E -1.17%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 10:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 06:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -5.00%E -1.73%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 13:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.33%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 06:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.33%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 06:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.65%E -0.440%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 10:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.52%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 13:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.52%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.24%EV -13.53%E -6.38%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.24%EV -13.53%E -6.38%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -5.99%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.24%EV -13.53%E -6.38%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.45%EV -6.98%E -2.47%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.97%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.89%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-17 13:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.45%EV -6.98%E -2.47%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.97%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.89%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-17 13:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -1.65%E -0.440%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 10:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.96%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 10:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.96%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 10:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.96%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 13:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.96%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 13:53 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-17 13:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-17 09:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -8.23%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -7.01%E -3.07%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 13:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.31%EV -9.86%E -4.46%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 06:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.35%EV -7.97%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.60%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -9.78%E -2.84%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 13:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -2.11%E -0.881%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 13:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -2.11%E -0.881%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.19%E -2.69%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -5.38%E -2.32%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -9.52%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -18.43%E -9.21%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-10-17 13:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 32.75%EV -10.27%E -3.78%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.05%EV -11.50%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -10.83%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-17 13:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.04%EV -2.93%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.21%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-17 13:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -14.35%E -6.83%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-17 09:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.90% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.90% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.78% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.78% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.79% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15% | 0.7% | 2026-10-17 13:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 13:50 |