The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hibernian v Celtic

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hibernian (Local)

Prediction 22.27%4.49fair odd
EV +0.199%
Edge +0.044%
Kelly +0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%22.20%22.15%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.264.254.5025.32%23.46%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celtic (Visit)

Prediction 54.50%1.83fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.16%54.53%54.45%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.721.7559.88%58.43%58.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.70%23.27%23.40%23.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.004.004.2025.64%24.99%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hibernian (Local): 22.27%; Celtic (Visit): 54.50%; Draw: 23.23%. For Hibernian (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.199%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.199%E +0.044%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.98%E -5.38%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 14:29
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.199%E +0.044%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.98%E -5.38%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.199%E +0.044%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.98%E -5.38%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.199%E +0.044%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.98%E -5.38%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 14:29
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -3.59%E -0.828%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -5.71%E -3.30%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 10:10
Coolbet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -4.25%E -0.989%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.12%EV -5.71%E -3.30%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -2.44%E -0.580%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 20:44
Betr (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -5.37%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.82%EV -6.25%E -3.64%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -5.37%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -6.25%E -3.64%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 20:44
Bet Right🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.48%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.51%EV -6.80%E -3.98%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 10:09
Pinnacle🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 22.72%EV -6.93%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.28%EV -4.62%E -2.64%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.00%EV -4.06%E -0.984%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 03:59
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -10.93%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -5.71%E -3.30%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 07:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -12.05%E -3.05%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.16%EV -5.16%E -2.97%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -8.24%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 09:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -12.05%E -3.05%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.16%EV -5.16%E -2.97%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -8.24%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 09:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%13.2%2026-10-19 07:30
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%14.0%2026-10-19 11:05