The School of Odds
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Dundee United v Hearts

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dundee United (Local)

Prediction 30.91%3.24fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.836%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.12%30.91%30.91%31.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.972.953.1535.09%33.66%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 43.26%2.31fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%43.26%43.26%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.122.122.2351.55%47.18%47.17%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -0.549%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.193%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.32%25.83%25.83%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.603.603.8529.85%27.80%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dundee United (Local): 30.91%; Hearts (Visit): 43.26%; Draw: 25.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -0.549%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95%EV -2.63%E -0.836%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -3.53%E -1.58%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%EV -0.549%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-24 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95%EV -2.63%E -0.836%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -3.53%E -1.58%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%EV -0.549%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-24 15:05
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.72%E -1.88%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.99%E -3.25%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -5.72%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 15:10
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.78%EV -6.65%E -2.20%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.04%EV -6.56%E -3.04%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.30%E -2.34%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.02%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.49%EV -7.43%E -3.47%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.72%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.02%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.49%EV -7.43%E -3.47%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.72%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 15:05
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.29%E -3.91%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.81%E -2.99%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.16%E -4.36%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 15:14
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -10.36%E -3.57%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -10.02%E -4.82%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -10.98%E -3.81%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -10.98%E -3.81%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -10.46%E -5.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 15:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.12%EV -11.91%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.25%EV -16.08%E -8.29%K -17.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.63%EV -13.46%E -4.02%K -5.73%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-27 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.57%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.28%13.6%2026-10-25 15:05
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 29.83%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.84%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.33%14.0%2026-10-27 17:40