Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dundee United v Falkirk F.C.

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Final: Dundee United 1–1 Falkirk F.C.

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dundee United (Local)

Prediction 48.00%2.08fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.93%47.94%48.10%49.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.941.952.0054.05%51.51%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Falkirk F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 26.21%3.82fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.676%
Kelly -0.924%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%26.23%26.05%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.7231.25%28.74%28.57%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.712%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.83%25.85%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.8029.41%27.71%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dundee United (Local): 48.00%; Falkirk F.C. (Visit): 26.21%; Draw: 25.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 09:00
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 09:00
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 07:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:55
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 14:04
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -10.90%E -3.21%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.00%E -2.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -10.90%E -3.21%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 09:00
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.47%EV -4.96%E -2.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.80%EV -2.51%E -0.676%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.73%EV -3.80%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 14:10
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -4.96%E -2.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -6.97%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 09:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -4.96%E -2.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:50
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -4.96%E -2.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:54
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -4.96%E -2.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 09:35
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.19%EV -5.44%E -2.76%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.90%E -3.21%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 09:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -5.92%E -3.02%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 06:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -5.92%E -3.02%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.28%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 06:40
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:05
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.10%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.98%EV -5.40%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.91%EV -6.63%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 08:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.66%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 09:05
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.66%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 19:20
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:34
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 12:15
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -1.99%E -0.524%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:05
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 19:15
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -5.13%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -6.63%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:15
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.91%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -6.97%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:44
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:44
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:44
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:44
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.51%EV -7.36%E -3.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -12.21%E -3.64%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:44
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -7.84%E -4.08%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -11.02%E -3.19%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 02:05
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -7.84%E -4.08%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -11.02%E -3.19%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 02:05
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -7.84%E -4.08%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.97%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 08:18
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -7.84%E -4.08%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 06:40
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.04%EV -8.32%E -4.35%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 06:40
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.80%E -4.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:08
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.80%E -4.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.77%EV -8.80%E -4.63%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -8.28%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.02%E -3.19%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 09:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.31%EV -9.28%E -4.91%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 06:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -9.76%E -5.19%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -16.14%E -5.04%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 06:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -9.76%E -5.19%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -16.14%E -5.04%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 06:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -10.24%E -5.47%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -6.97%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 14:09
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.60%EV -10.24%E -5.47%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 08:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -11.20%E -6.05%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -3.04%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.20%E -6.05%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -9.59%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -11.02%E -3.19%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 47.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.40%2.4%2026-09-04 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%2.7%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.31%2.7%2026-09-04 14:20
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-09-04 13:05
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:20