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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Dundee FC v Motherwell

Inicio: 2026-09-19 13:59 UTC

Final: Dundee FC 2–1 Motherwell

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dundee FC (Local)

Predicción 31.39%3.19momio equitativo
EV +0.437%
Ventaja +0.137%
Kelly +0.199%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.16%31.36%31.38%32.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.952.923.2035.71%33.89%34.19%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Motherwell (Visitante)

Predicción 41.10%2.43momio equitativo
EV -3.41%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -2.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.28%41.21%41.04%43.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.262.272.3547.62%44.33%43.96%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.51%3.63momio equitativo
EV -0.959%
Ventaja -0.266%
Kelly -0.369%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.93%27.44%27.57%28.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.383.303.6031.25%29.56%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dundee FC (Local): 31.39%; Motherwell (Visitante): 41.10%; Empate: 27.51%. Para Dundee FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.19. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.437%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV +0.437%E +0.137%K +0.199%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.63%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 19:35
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV +0.437%E +0.137%K +0.199%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.63%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 19:41
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV +0.437%E +0.137%K +0.199%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -11.63%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 19:36
Pinnacle🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.68%EV -1.45%E -0.461%K -0.676%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.99%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 14:10
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -2.70%E -0.871%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:05
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.09%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 14:00
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.59%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:20
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.59%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.59%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.59%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 15:24
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.59%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 15:25
1xBet🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.85%EV -4.90%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.82%EV -5.88%E -2.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:13
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.81%EV -5.21%E -1.73%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.99%EV -6.70%E -2.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 15:19
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 09:45
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 13:10
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 13:05
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 09:40
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -5.84%E -1.95%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%EV -7.11%E -3.15%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 07:08
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 14:30
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -5.09%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 09:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -4.64%E -2.00%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 10:10
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 13:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.41%E -2.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 13:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 10:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.37%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:19
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 07:30
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 07:26
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 07:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 07:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -8.98%E -3.10%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 14:10
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -0.959%E -0.266%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 13:10
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:10
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.61%E -3.34%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 10:09
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.55%E -3.70%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.83%EV -10.55%E -3.70%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.68%EV -8.34%E -3.74%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 09:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.55%E -3.70%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-18 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -10.55%E -3.70%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.99%EV -10.81%E -4.98%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -11.96%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 10:49
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 09:39
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 09:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -8.34%E -3.74%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-18 10:10
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -8.34%E -3.74%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 19:15
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.12%E -4.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -11.63%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -9.21%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-16 07:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.04%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-09-18 15:25
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%3.1%2026-09-18 15:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%4.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%4.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%6.6%2026-09-18 15:30