Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dundee FC v Aberdeen

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:02 UTC

Final: Dundee FC 2–0 Aberdeen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dundee FC (Local)

Predicción 33.09%3.02momio equitativo
EV +2.57%
Ventaja +0.828%
Kelly +1.22%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.99%33.21%33.05%35.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.762.773.1040.00%36.19%36.04%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Aberdeen (Visitante)

Predicción 39.07%2.56momio equitativo
EV -0.366%
Ventaja -0.144%
Kelly -0.236%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.72%39.01%39.10%41.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.412.412.5544.44%41.53%41.58%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.84%3.59momio equitativo
EV -1.16%
Ventaja -0.327%
Kelly -0.455%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.51%27.78%27.85%28.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.343.303.5531.75%29.91%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dundee FC (Local): 33.09%; Aberdeen (Visitante): 39.07%; Empate: 27.84%. Para Dundee FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.02. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.99%EV +2.57%E +0.828%K +1.22%G +0.031%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.95%EV -10.52%E -4.60%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.06%EV -1.16%E -0.327%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 13:52
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -2.07%E -0.698%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -3.88%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -2.07%E -0.698%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -3.88%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 13:40
BetUS🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.67%EV -2.07%E -0.698%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.31%EV -3.88%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.03%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 13:45
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77%EV -2.40%E -0.812%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.13%EV -3.49%E -1.41%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.10%EV -4.22%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 13:59
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -4.05%E -1.40%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -4.05%E -1.40%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:44
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:54
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -7.01%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:43
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -7.01%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:55
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -7.01%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 13:44
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:55
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:54
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -5.70%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -5.70%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -6.04%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.71%EV -5.84%E -2.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -8.68%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.55%E -0.730%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:44
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -2.55%E -0.730%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -6.73%E -2.01%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 14:00
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:49
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -10.13%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -2.55%E -0.730%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:45
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 13:55
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.81%EV -7.36%E -2.63%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.93%EV -7.79%E -3.30%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -2.55%E -0.730%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -2.55%E -0.730%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:45
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:19
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 13:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 13:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 13:14
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.01%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 13:49
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -10.67%E -3.95%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.67%E -3.95%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -4.27%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:19
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -10.67%E -3.95%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 13:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.96%EV -11.66%E -4.37%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.11%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.93%EV -12.30%E -3.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-08 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -12.32%E -4.65%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -0.366%E -0.144%K -0.236%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -6.73%E -2.01%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -12.32%E -4.65%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -0.366%E -0.144%K -0.236%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -6.73%E -2.01%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:59
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.98%E -5.38%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.32%E -0.928%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.12%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.29%EV -15.63%E -6.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.03%EV -5.05%E -2.08%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.51%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -15.63%E -6.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.87%EV -5.05%E -2.08%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -17.29%E -6.91%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.74%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -12.30%E -3.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -17.29%E -6.91%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.74%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -12.30%E -3.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -17.29%E -6.91%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.74%EV -6.23%E -2.59%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -12.30%E -3.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-08 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-08 14:00
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.34%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.86%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.80%1.3%2026-08-08 14:00
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-08-08 13:55