Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic v Hearts

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 14:00 UTC

Final: Celtic 7–1 Hearts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celtic (Local)

Prediction 57.46%1.74fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -5.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.57%57.47%57.42%58.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.611.611.6867.57%62.00%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 20.63%4.85fair odd
EV +7.26%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.82%20.58%20.66%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.594.605.2023.81%21.78%21.74%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.91%4.56fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.93%21.95%21.92%23.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.204.224.5025.64%23.82%23.67%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celtic (Local): 57.46%; Hearts (Visit): 20.63%; Draw: 21.91%. For Hearts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.94%EV -4.61%E -2.78%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +7.26%E +1.40%K +1.73%G +0.126%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.24%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-18 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.94%EV -4.61%E -2.78%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +7.26%E +1.40%K +1.73%G +0.126%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.24%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-18 13:19
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.93%EV -0.576%E -0.119%K -0.151%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -0.988%E -0.206%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 13:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -0.988%E -0.206%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 13:14
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.21%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 13:29
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 13:53
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -2.02%E -0.425%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:19
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.55%EV -8.63%E -5.43%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -3.05%E -0.649%K -0.825%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 13:33
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.82%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -4.08%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.29%EV -9.08%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 13:54
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.43%EV -3.46%E -2.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.84%EV -4.50%E -0.971%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.73%EV -2.72%E -0.614%K -0.792%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-18 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.04%E -2.42%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 13:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 13:39
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:30
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -6.33%E -3.89%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.98%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -4.70%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 13:34
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 13:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 13:30
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 13:54
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 13:30
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 13:53
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.67%EV -10.36%E -6.64%K -18.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -13.46%E -3.41%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 13:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -10.36%E -6.64%K -18.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 13:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -10.36%E -6.64%K -18.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -5.11%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 13:19
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 13:34
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 13:35
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 13:35
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.13%EV -6.33%E -3.89%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 13:40
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 13:34
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.74%EV -8.06%E -5.04%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-18 13:44
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 13:54
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.48%E -4.65%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 13:52
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.65%EV -10.93%E -7.05%K -19.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.18%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.14%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.16%EV -6.33%E -3.89%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 13:34
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.87%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.20%EV -9.08%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 13:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.17%EV -8.63%E -5.43%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.24%E -2.10%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 13:35
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.88%EV -6.91%E -4.26%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.18%EV -10.27%E -2.36%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 13:35
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.75%EV -5.18%E -3.14%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -10.68%E -2.47%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 13:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.90%EV -9.78%E -6.23%K -17.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.77%EV -11.30%E -2.63%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 13:53
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.35%EV -14.95%E -10.10%K -31.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.32%EV -12.33%E -2.90%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.32%EV -11.27%E -2.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-18 13:34
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -9.78%E -6.23%K -17.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -13.36%E -3.18%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%0.6%2026-10-18 13:55
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-18 13:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-18 13:45
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.50%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.73%1.1%2026-10-18 13:45