The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Aberdeen v St Mirren

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Aberdeen 3–1 St Mirren

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen (Local)

Prediction 53.86%1.86fair odd
EV -0.362%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.426%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.98%53.74%54.08%56.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.751.751.8562.11%57.21%57.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Mirren (Visit)

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV +0.461%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.80%21.48%21.16%24.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.254.334.7027.03%23.52%23.09%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV -0.932%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.311%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%24.77%24.75%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.754.0028.57%26.72%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aberdeen (Local): 53.86%; St Mirren (Visit): 21.37%; Draw: 24.77%. For St Mirren (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.461%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.91%EV -5.21%E -2.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV +0.461%E +0.098%K +0.125%G +0.001%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.53%EV -2.42%E -0.614%K -0.823%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-17 13:55
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -8.98%E -5.31%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV +0.461%E +0.098%K +0.125%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:55
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.89%EV -7.90%E -4.62%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -1.68%E -0.364%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -1.68%E -0.364%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -12.75%E -7.87%K -20.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -1.68%E -0.364%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04%EV -6.82%E -3.95%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.932%E -0.233%K -0.311%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 13:59
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 13:35
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:59
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.82%E -3.95%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 13:55
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -6.82%E -3.95%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 13:43
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -3.41%E -0.874%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:59
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -8.98%E -5.31%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -3.41%E -0.874%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:55
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -3.81%E -0.848%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.16%EV -7.36%E -4.28%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.93%EV -4.88%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.91%EV -7.37%E -1.97%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:30
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.63%EV -8.98%E -5.31%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.75%EV -4.88%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:57
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.68%EV -5.31%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.07%EV -1.18%E -0.296%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.13%EV -6.29%E -3.61%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:34
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 13:35
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 13:35
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.36%E -4.28%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -7.02%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 13:35
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -6.82%E -3.95%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:59
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.84%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.84%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.84%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.84%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:30
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -9.16%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 06:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -9.16%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 06:35
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -10.23%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 06:35
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -10.23%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -4.13%E -2.32%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.23%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 07:59
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -4.67%E -2.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -10.23%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 06:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -5.75%E -3.28%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -10.23%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.89%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 06:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.77%EV -0.362%E -0.196%K -0.426%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -12.36%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.77%EV -0.362%E -0.196%K -0.426%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -12.36%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -4.65%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -2.52%E -1.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -14.50%E -3.63%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.50%EV -2.52%E -1.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -14.50%E -3.63%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -6.29%E -3.61%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.50%E -3.63%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -10.84%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 08:05
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -14.50%E -3.63%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.44%E -4.97%K -12.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.50%E -3.63%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.32%E -3.80%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.54%EV -13.29%E -8.25%K -21.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.82%EV -15.57%E -3.94%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -13.32%E -3.80%K -5.33%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -5.21%E -2.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.64%EV -18.78%E -4.94%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -12.08%E -3.40%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -5.21%E -2.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.64%EV -18.78%E -4.94%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -12.08%E -3.40%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -3.05%E -1.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -20.91%E -5.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -13.32%E -3.80%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Matchbook◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.52%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.16%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%1.3%2026-10-17 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.16%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%1.3%2026-10-17 13:55