Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen v St Mirren

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

58%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen (Local)

Prediction 58.24%1.72fair odd

EV -5.64%

Edge -3.48%

Kelly -9.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.01%58.24%58.24%59.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.601.601.6263.69%62.70%62.70%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Mirren (Visit)

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd

EV -6.42%

Edge -2.23%

Kelly -3.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.49%32.49%32.49%33.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.832.832.8835.71%35.30%35.40%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.26%10.80fair odd

EV +11.13%

Edge +0.928%

Kelly +1.01%

Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.73%9.26%9.26%9.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

10.0010.8810.7512.0010.00%9.20%9.30%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aberdeen (Local): 58.24%; St Mirren (Visit): 32.49%; Draw: 9.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Sky Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -8.56%E -5.45%K -15.01%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +11.13%E +0.928%K +1.01%G +0.113%	7.7%	2026-05-10 11:05
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.10%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV -6.42%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV +1.87%E +0.170%K +0.187%G +0.003%	5.5%	2026-05-10 11:04
SportsBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.01%EV -6.81%E -4.26%K -11.35%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -2.76%E -0.263%K -0.291%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-10 11:05
FanDuel🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.24%EV -7.39%E -4.65%K -12.53%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -7.39%E -2.59%K -4.00%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.39%E -0.739%K -0.821%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-10 11:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.