Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen v St Johnstone

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen (Local)

Prediction 47.91%2.09fair odd
EV -0.829%
Edge -0.401%
Kelly -0.775%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.82%47.83%47.95%49.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.971.952.0757.14%50.86%51.28%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Johnstone (Visit)

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +0.530%
Kelly +0.702%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%25.02%24.92%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.633.704.1031.25%27.53%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.607%
Kelly -0.840%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.18%27.15%27.13%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.423.403.6030.77%29.21%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aberdeen (Local): 47.91%; St Johnstone (Visit): 24.92%; Draw: 27.17%. For St Johnstone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.03%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV +2.17%E +0.530%K +0.702%G +0.015%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.53%EV -5.17%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-11 12:49
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.76%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.66%EV +1.68%E +0.411%K +0.544%G +0.009%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.58%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 12:50
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -10.41%E -5.57%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -0.317%E -0.079%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -11.37%E -6.15%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -0.317%E -0.079%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.10%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.17%EV -2.81%E -0.720%K -0.969%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.10%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.17%EV -2.81%E -0.720%K -0.969%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:49
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -2.81%E -0.720%K -0.969%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 12:13
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.66%EV -9.45%E -5.00%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -8.98%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:30
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:49
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:15
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:50
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.60%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -8.98%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 12:14
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 12:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 12:39
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 12:28
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -7.54%E -3.90%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:47
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -2.19%E -0.607%K -0.840%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:29
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.60%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 12:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 12:29
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.48%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:09
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -8.98%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 12:15
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.02%E -4.17%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:14
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.02%E -4.17%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 12:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.77%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -8.98%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 12:44
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.19%E -0.607%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 12:29
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.19%E -0.607%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 12:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.19%E -0.607%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 12:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.19%E -0.607%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 12:29
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -6.10%E -3.11%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:29
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 12:29
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 12:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.57%EV -10.41%E -5.57%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 12:47
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.23%EV -16.16%E -9.23%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.27%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.51%EV -11.69%E -3.60%K -5.20%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-11 12:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -0.829%E -0.401%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -16.52%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -0.829%E -0.401%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -16.52%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.38%EV -1.31%E -0.635%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -16.52%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.38%EV -1.31%E -0.635%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -16.52%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.90%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:29
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:29
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:30
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.08%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:30
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -20.25%E -6.33%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -8.98%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 12:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -20.25%E -6.33%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 12:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -20.25%E -6.33%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-10-11 12:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-10-11 12:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-10-11 12:09
Matchbook◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-10-11 12:15
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-10-11 12:45
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.1%2026-10-11 12:50