The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Aberdeen v Falkirk F.C.

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:45 UTC

Final: Aberdeen 0–1 Falkirk F.C.

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen (Local)

Prediction 49.34%2.03fair odd
EV +0.649%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.624%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.65%49.34%49.30%51.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.901.912.0458.48%52.51%52.36%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Falkirk F.C. (Visit)

Prediction 24.34%4.11fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.320%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.74%24.38%24.42%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.733.804.1529.85%26.78%26.32%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.32%3.80fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.469%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.28%26.28%27.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.503.7530.30%28.34%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aberdeen (Local): 49.34%; Falkirk F.C. (Visit): 24.34%; Draw: 26.32%. For Falkirk F.C. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.39%EV +0.649%E +0.318%K +0.624%G +0.004%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -11.16%E -3.06%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -2.61%E -0.704%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.39%EV +0.649%E +0.318%K +0.624%G +0.004%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%EV -11.16%E -3.06%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -2.61%E -0.704%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-28 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.09%EV -2.31%E -1.17%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.55%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.09%EV -2.31%E -1.17%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.55%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-28 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -2.61%E -0.704%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 19:44
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:30
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -3.79%E -1.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -16.03%E -4.65%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-28 19:29
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.44%EV -4.28%E -2.21%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.92%EV -2.40%E -0.598%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.64%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 19:44
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.28%EV -4.78%E -2.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -8.73%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -1.29%E -0.344%K -0.469%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 19:44
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.65%EV -4.78%E -2.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -18.46%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-28 19:29
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.05%EV -5.27%E -2.75%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-28 19:25
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -5.27%E -2.75%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -9.19%E -2.66%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.78%EV -5.27%E -2.75%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -18.46%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-28 19:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.78%EV -5.27%E -2.75%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -18.46%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-28 19:30
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.56%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV +1.01%E +0.243%K +0.320%G +0.003%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.17%EV -2.87%E -0.777%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-28 19:44
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 19:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.64%E -0.661%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 19:25
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -6.29%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.61%E -0.704%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-28 19:44
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -8.73%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 15:52
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-28 19:25
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -11.16%E -3.06%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 19:44
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 19:20
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.76%E -3.02%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 19:20
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.26%E -3.29%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 19:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.26%E -3.29%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 19:44
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -6.26%E -3.29%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-28 19:29
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -6.26%E -3.29%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 19:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.69%EV -6.75%E -3.57%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -2.64%E -0.661%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.69%EV -6.75%E -3.57%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -2.64%E -0.661%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-28 19:44
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.45%EV -6.75%E -3.57%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 19:44
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.25%E -3.85%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 19:19
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -7.25%E -3.85%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 19:20
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -7.25%E -3.85%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -3.86%E -0.977%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -9.19%E -2.66%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 19:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.45%EV -7.25%E -3.85%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.29%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.34%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 19:20
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.14%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 19:44
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -7.74%E -4.14%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -6.29%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 19:44
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -7.74%E -4.14%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-28 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -7.74%E -4.14%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 19:25
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -8.73%E -4.72%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 19:25
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -8.73%E -4.72%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -5.08%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.87%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 19:30
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -9.71%E -5.31%K -11.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -2.64%E -0.661%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 19:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -9.71%E -5.31%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -13.13%E -3.98%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-28 19:44
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -11.19%E -6.22%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -8.73%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.50%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 19:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -13.66%E -7.81%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -2.64%E -0.661%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -5.24%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.37%EV -15.63%E -9.14%K -22.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.92%EV -12.38%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.71%EV -11.82%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-28 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.6%2026-10-28 19:30
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-10-28 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.34%1.2%2026-10-28 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.52%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.34%1.2%2026-10-28 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.27%1.5%2026-10-28 19:30
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-28 19:20

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