The School of Odds
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Sporting Gijón v Leganés

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Prediction 49.50%2.02fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -5.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.05%49.40%49.50%50.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.871.9258.82%54.24%53.48%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leganés (Visit)

Prediction 22.39%4.47fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -0.754%
Kelly -0.981%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.73%22.43%22.39%23.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.094.154.3227.78%24.46%24.10%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -0.966%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.87%28.17%28.10%28.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.233.253.4434.72%30.93%30.77%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Gijón (Local): 49.50%; Leganés (Visit): 22.39%; Draw: 28.10%. For Leganés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.32, with an expected value of -3.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.94%EV -4.96%E -2.58%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.19%EV -3.26%E -0.754%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.87%EV -3.32%E -0.966%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-02 16:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.59%EV -4.96%E -2.58%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -4.82%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-02 14:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.59%EV -4.96%E -2.58%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -4.82%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.45%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-02 14:40
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -5.45%E -2.85%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -10.42%E -2.61%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.66%E -2.67%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-02 15:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -6.94%E -3.69%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -7.06%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -6.13%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 16:04
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.43%E -3.97%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.70%E -0.862%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 20:45
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.41%E -5.14%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -5.94%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.66%E -2.67%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 20:34
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.90%E -6.05%K -13.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -10.42%E -2.61%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-02 16:04
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -10.90%E -6.05%K -13.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -10.42%E -2.61%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.88%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-01 20:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.05%EV -14.36%E -8.30%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.09%EV -19.38%E -5.38%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.86%EV -19.06%E -6.62%K -10.14%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-01 21:16
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.94%EV -15.85%E -9.32%K -22.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.77%EV -12.66%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -15.69%E -5.23%K -7.85%G +0.000%17.8%2026-03-01 20:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.80%2.1%2026-03-02 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.80%2.1%2026-03-02 16:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.02%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%3.0%2026-03-02 16:04
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.66%3.8%2026-03-02 16:04