Language:English
Sporting Gijón v Celta Fortuna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Gijón (Local)
Prediction 52.93%1.89fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.40%52.98%52.85%56.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.721.721.8163.69%58.30%58.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Celta Fortuna (Visit)
Prediction 20.65%4.84fair odd
EV +4.07%
Edge +0.808%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 5.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%20.60%20.72%21.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.505.0425.00%22.18%22.22%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV +0.396%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.141%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%26.42%26.43%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.493.423.8030.77%28.68%29.24%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Gijón (Local): 52.93%; Celta Fortuna (Visit): 20.65%; Draw: 26.42%. For Celta Fortuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.37%EV -5.78%E -3.25%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.85%EV +4.07%E +0.808%K +1.01%G +0.041% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.78%EV -9.64%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +3.25%E +0.650%K +0.812%G +0.026% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV +0.396%E +0.104%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +3.25%E +0.650%K +0.812%G +0.026% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV +0.396%E +0.104%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +3.25%E +0.650%K +0.812%G +0.026% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV +0.396%E +0.104%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +3.25%E +0.650%K +0.812%G +0.026% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV +0.396%E +0.104%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.24%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.84I 20.66%NM 19.91%EV -0.056%E -0.012%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.84%EV -5.15%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -1.91%E -0.403%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.55%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.57%EV -13.72%E -8.42%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.57%EV -13.72%E -8.42%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.57%EV -13.72%E -8.42%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.57%EV -13.72%E -8.42%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -6.31%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -5.01%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -14.78%E -9.18%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -5.01%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -14.78%E -9.18%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -5.01%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.60%EV -15.31%E -9.57%K -25.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -5.01%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -6.21%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.43%EV -6.04%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 13:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.65%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.25%EV -6.04%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.78%E -3.25%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.31%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 14:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -7.08%E -1.57%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.66%EV -9.49%E -5.55%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-04 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.72%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-04 13:41 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.51%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -9.14%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.37%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-04 14:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.74%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -10.59%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.67%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.07%EV -11.21%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -8.85%E -2.57%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.14%EV -11.08%E -6.59%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -11.21%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.10%EV -9.64%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-04 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -13.27%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -13.27%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -13.27%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.43%E -4.87%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -13.27%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -10.02%E -5.89%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -13.27%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.59%EV -16.90%E -10.76%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.52%EV -15.34%E -3.74%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.89%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-10-04 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -11.08%E -6.59%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -17.40%E -4.35%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.80% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 1.0% | 2026-10-04 14:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.61% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.59% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.12% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29% | 1.4% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93% | 1.7% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.22% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.20% | 2.1% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.21% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 14:15 |