The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sabadell FC v Andorra CF

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sabadell FC (Local)

Prediction 48.21%2.07fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.17%48.24%48.24%49.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.921.9954.64%51.85%52.08%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andorra CF (Visit)

Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV -0.482%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%23.54%23.52%25.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.754.2228.57%26.36%26.67%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.21%3.54fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.360%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.06%28.22%28.24%29.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.303.5033.33%30.18%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sabadell FC (Local): 48.21%; Andorra CF (Visit): 23.58%; Draw: 28.21%. For Andorra CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.22, with an expected value of -0.482%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.54%EV -4.07%E -2.05%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.89%EV -0.482%E -0.114%K -0.150%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.58%EV -4.65%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-04 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.70%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -2.67%E -0.774%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.70%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -2.67%E -0.774%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:10
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.70%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -2.67%E -0.774%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:06
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.70%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -2.67%E -0.774%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.70%EV -5.03%E -2.56%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -2.67%E -0.774%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 18:06
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -1.26%E -0.360%K -0.504%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 18:50
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -6.00%E -3.08%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -7.44%E -3.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.08%EV -8.97%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.50%EV -4.65%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 14:24
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -7.44%E -3.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 18:06
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -7.44%E -3.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 18:01
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -7.44%E -3.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 18:06
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -7.44%E -3.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 18:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.93%E -4.15%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 16:40
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.93%E -4.15%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.72%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 18:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -8.41%E -4.43%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -4.08%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.17%EV -8.41%E -4.43%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -16.28%E -4.59%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.17%EV -8.41%E -4.43%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -16.28%E -4.59%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.27%EV -9.37%E -4.99%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -17.46%E -4.99%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -8.31%E -2.56%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-04 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.26%EV -10.34%E -5.56%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -15.37%E -5.12%K -7.68%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-04 18:43
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -10.82%E -5.85%K -12.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.90%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 17:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -11.78%E -6.44%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.61%EV -12.75%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -13.96%E -4.58%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-04 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-10-04 18:25
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 47.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%13.6%2026-10-04 16:55