Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Valladolid CF v Albacete

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Final: Real Valladolid CF 5–0 Albacete

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Prediction 49.41%2.02fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.49%49.41%49.34%51.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.861.851.9557.47%53.79%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Albacete (Visit)

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV -0.103%
Edge -0.024%
Kelly -0.031%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%23.24%23.19%25.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.923.904.3128.57%25.50%25.64%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -0.507%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.19%27.35%27.47%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.323.303.6033.90%30.12%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Valladolid CF (Local): 49.41%; Albacete (Visit): 23.18%; Draw: 27.41%. For Albacete (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.314. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.310, with an expected value of -0.103%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.56%EV -3.65%E -1.87%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.42%EV -0.103%E -0.024%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -5.43%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-12 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -3.65%E -1.87%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -1.32%E -0.366%K -0.507%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:19
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.84%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -1.49%E -0.352%K -0.460%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -5.98%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-12 09:50
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.72%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.51%EV -2.19%E -0.519%K -0.680%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.77%EV -6.25%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 11:48
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -5.43%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-12 09:27
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-12 11:24
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 11:34
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 11:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.63%E -2.95%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.12%E -3.22%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.65%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.12%E -3.22%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.65%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:35
BetAnything🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.12%E -3.22%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.65%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:34
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.12%E -3.22%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 11:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:45
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -4.97%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 11:49
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.15%EV -6.61%E -3.50%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-12 09:23
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.96%EV -7.11%E -3.78%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.73%EV -6.13%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 11:33
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.08%EV -7.11%E -3.78%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 11:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.79%EV -7.60%E -4.07%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -2.65%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.04%EV -8.99%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 09:29
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -7.60%E -4.07%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 11:39
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -7.60%E -4.07%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.29%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -8.45%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 11:39
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.29%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -8.45%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 11:39
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-12 11:44
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-12 11:43
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-12 11:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.69%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 10:39
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-12 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-12 09:24
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-12 09:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-12 09:24
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.59%E -4.64%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-12 09:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.68%EV -9.08%E -4.94%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 11:50
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 11:45
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 11:44
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 11:44
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 11:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -9.58%E -5.23%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-12 11:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -10.07%E -5.53%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 11:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -10.07%E -5.53%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.91%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.12%EV -10.57%E -5.84%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.28%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-12 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.68%EV -11.06%E -6.15%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-12 11:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.55%EV -11.06%E -6.15%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17%EV -10.77%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.28%EV -10.36%E -3.17%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-12 11:38
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -11.06%E -6.15%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -9.54%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 11:20
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.97%EV -11.06%E -6.15%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -15.02%E -4.85%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-12 11:28
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -12.54%E -7.09%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -2.65%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 11:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.95%EV -12.54%E -7.09%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.10%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.95%EV -15.02%E -4.85%K -7.15%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-12 11:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 47.49%EV -12.54%E -7.09%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.02%EV -18.88%E -5.39%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.49%EV -19.14%E -6.49%K -9.81%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-12 11:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.22%EV -14.03%E -8.06%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -14.24%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%EV -15.02%E -4.85%K -7.15%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-12 11:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-12 11:40
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-10-12 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-10-12 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-10-12 11:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-10-12 11:50
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-10-12 11:45