Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Sociedad B v Tenerife

Inicio: 2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad B 1–1 Tenerife

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Sociedad B (Local)

Predicción 38.92%2.57momio equitativo
EV +1.20%
Ventaja +0.461%
Kelly +0.748%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.92%38.83%39.07%40.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.412.402.6045.45%41.52%41.67%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tenerife (Visitante)

Predicción 31.64%3.16momio equitativo
EV -0.013%
Ventaja -0.004%
Kelly -0.006%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.07%31.72%31.45%34.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.832.813.1639.22%35.37%35.59%31.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.44%3.40momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.867%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.70%29.45%29.48%30.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.093.103.3035.09%32.35%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Real Sociedad B (Local): 38.92%; Tenerife (Visitante): 31.64%; Empate: 29.44%. Para Real Sociedad B (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.57. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.20%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.20%E +0.461%K +0.748%G +0.009%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 12:14
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.20%E +0.461%K +0.748%G +0.009%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.20%E +0.461%K +0.748%G +0.009%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 12:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.20%E +0.461%K +0.748%G +0.009%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 12:15
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 12:09
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -16.15%E -6.09%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 12:15
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -16.15%E -6.09%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 12:15
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -16.15%E -6.09%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 12:15
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -16.15%E -6.09%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.92%EV -3.47%E -1.40%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.88%EV -16.78%E -6.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -13.16%E -4.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 12:15
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.66%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -2.86%E -0.867%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 12:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.33%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 12:40
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 12:38
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.87%E -3.08%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 12:04
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 11:59
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.06%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -17.73%E -6.82%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -13.16%E -4.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.06%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -17.73%E -6.82%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -13.16%E -4.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 12:15
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.31%EV -5.03%E -2.06%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.35%EV -3.18%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.34%EV -3.74%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.63%EV -5.42%E -2.23%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.47%EV -0.013%E -0.004%K -0.006%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.90%EV -5.21%E -1.62%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 13:50
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.08%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -3.49%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -3.49%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:15
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -3.49%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:39
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:40
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:40
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.57%E -5.40%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:00
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.57%E -5.40%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.57%E -5.40%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:00
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -6.59%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -14.57%E -5.40%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 12:00
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.08%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.80%E -1.81%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.36%EV -5.71%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.38%EV -6.39%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:23
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -12.99%E -4.72%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 12:40
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -14.57%E -5.40%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 12:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.12%EV -7.37%E -3.09%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.71%EV -19.31%E -7.57%K -12.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%EV -16.11%E -5.65%K -8.71%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-04 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.75%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 13:34
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.75%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 13:35
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.26%EV -8.92%E -3.81%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -5.08%E -1.69%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.12%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 13:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 38.85%EV -8.92%E -3.81%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -3.49%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:35
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:38
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -8.16%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:39
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.24%E -2.84%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.48%E -4.56%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.87%E -3.08%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.69%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 12:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -12.43%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -11.40%E -4.07%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -8.75%E -2.82%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 13:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.37%EV -13.59%E -6.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.00%EV -10.77%E -3.82%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -13.16%E -4.46%K -6.75%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-04 13:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -14.37%E -6.53%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.96%EV -9.82%E -3.45%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -10.22%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 13:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.25%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-09-04 14:20
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58%2.2%2026-09-04 13:55
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%2.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%2.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%2.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%2.8%2026-09-04 14:35