Language:English
Leganés v CD Castellón
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Leganés (Local)
Prediction 28.53%3.50fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.370%
Kelly -0.521%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.68%28.54%31.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.143.153.4636.36%31.84%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CD Castellón (Visit)
Prediction 43.41%2.30fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.801%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.78%43.35%43.38%44.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.142.142.2852.08%46.81%46.73%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.351%
Kelly -0.490%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%27.97%28.08%29.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.223.5232.79%30.85%31.06%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leganés (Local): 28.53%; CD Castellón (Visit): 43.41%; Draw: 28.06%. For CD Castellón (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.97%EV -1.28%E -0.370%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.20%E -1.43%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.63%EV -5.16%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -2.99%E -0.880%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-28 18:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -2.99%E -0.880%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.42%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.87%EV -4.70%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.91%EV -7.97%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -7.10%E -3.32%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-28 18:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -7.10%E -3.32%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.05%EV -6.70%E -2.05%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.97%EV -6.23%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.98%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -7.27%E -2.24%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -7.27%E -2.24%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.20%EV -7.97%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.20%EV -7.97%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -8.70%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -13.18%E -6.59%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV -10.13%E -3.21%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -2.33%E -1.03%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.80%E -0.513%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-28 15:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.13%E -3.21%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.12%EV -8.41%E -3.98%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.13%E -3.21%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -7.97%E -3.76%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -11.62%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -10.98%E -3.52%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -10.98%E -3.52%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -11.55%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.33%E -1.03%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-28 15:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -11.55%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.55%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.71%EV -9.65%E -3.00%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-28 18:18 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.55%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.55%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -14.42%E -4.73%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-28 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -12.98%E -4.26%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.03%E -0.450%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -12.98%E -4.26%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.03%E -0.450%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -12.98%E -4.26%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.03%E -0.450%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -12.98%E -4.26%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.03%E -0.450%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -12.98%E -4.26%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.03%E -0.450%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-28 15:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-28 15:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-28 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.33%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 44.26%EV -16.65%E -8.67%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -17.26%E -5.95%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -17.26%E -5.95%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -17.26%E -5.95%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -17.26%E -5.95%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -4.50%E -2.04%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -17.83%E -6.19%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.01%EV -5.37%E -2.46%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -17.83%E -6.19%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.01%EV -5.37%E -2.46%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.91%EV -17.83%E -6.19%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.83%EV -5.37%E -2.46%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -11.62%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.14%EV -21.54%E -7.83%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.78%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.08%EV -14.42%E -4.73%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-09-28 18:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41% | 2.0% | 2026-09-28 18:25 |