The School of Odds
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Las Palmas v Real Sociedad B

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:31 UTC

Final: Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad B

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Palmas (Local)

Prediction 43.66%2.29fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.46%43.81%43.69%47.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.062.102.2054.64%48.53%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad B (Visit)

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV +5.64%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +2.21%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.30%29.71%29.67%30.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.173.153.5534.72%31.54%31.80%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -0.301%
Edge -0.080%
Kelly -0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%26.48%26.64%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.423.403.7531.75%29.26%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Palmas (Local): 43.66%; Real Sociedad B (Visit): 29.76%; Draw: 26.59%. For Real Sociedad B (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV +5.64%E +1.59%K +2.21%G +0.125%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV +5.64%E +1.59%K +2.21%G +0.125%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV +5.64%E +1.59%K +2.21%G +0.125%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV +5.64%E +1.59%K +2.21%G +0.125%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 09:34
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -15.74%E -8.16%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV +2.66%E +0.772%K +1.09%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 15:35
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -15.74%E -8.16%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV +2.66%E +0.772%K +1.09%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 15:35
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -15.74%E -8.16%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV +2.66%E +0.772%K +1.09%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 15:35
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -15.74%E -8.16%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV +2.66%E +0.772%K +1.09%G +0.029%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.78%EV -16.18%E -8.43%K -17.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV +1.18%E +0.346%K +0.490%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -10.94%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.78%EV -16.18%E -8.43%K -17.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV +1.18%E +0.346%K +0.490%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -10.94%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.53%EV -16.62%E -8.70%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -0.312%E -0.093%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 15:35
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.27%E -2.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.53%EV -0.907%E -0.272%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.70%EV -8.81%E -2.57%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 16:25
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -2.99%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.41%EV -2.69%E -0.736%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -20.11%E -10.99%K -24.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -3.29%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-24 15:35
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.78%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.62%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.78%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 14:40
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.78%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.78%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.75%EV -15.74%E -8.16%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -4.78%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 16:20
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.10%EV -5.27%E -2.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.52%EV -0.301%E -0.080%K -0.110%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.20%EV -4.83%E -2.22%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.20%EV -4.83%E -2.22%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 16:25
BetAnything🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.20%EV -4.83%E -2.22%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 16:25
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -7.45%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.94%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:55
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -7.45%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.94%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:55
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.13%EV -9.63%E -4.65%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.66%EV -7.01%E -3.29%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.62%EV -6.56%E -2.09%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.72%EV -7.48%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 10:40
Bovada🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.71%EV -7.89%E -3.74%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.56%EV -7.16%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -8.28%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 16:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.63%E -0.441%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 16:20
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 16:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.94%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.51%E -5.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 16:30
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -10.51%E -5.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.28%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -10.51%E -5.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 16:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.22%EV -14.00%E -7.11%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.56%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.22%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 16:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 16:20
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 15:44
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 15:45
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 15:45
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 09:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 15:54
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.27%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.51%E -5.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.61%E -2.83%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 15:55
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.51%E -5.12%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 15:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 44.76%EV -17.93%E -9.54%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.53%EV -12.21%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-24 16:14
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.65%EV -14.30%E -4.96%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -6.95%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.8%2026-10-24 16:25
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-10-24 16:25

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