The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Girona FC v Celta Fortuna

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:31 UTC

Final: Girona FC 5–1 Celta Fortuna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona FC (Local)

Prediction 69.14%1.45fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.61%69.10%69.21%70.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.341.331.4080.65%74.85%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Fortuna (Visit)

Prediction 11.97%8.36fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +0.538%
Kelly +0.608%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.01%12.03%11.82%13.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.307.377.508.7515.87%13.57%13.33%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.90%5.29fair odd
EV -0.793%
Edge -0.151%
Kelly -0.187%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.80%18.88%18.97%20.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.785.2522.73%20.92%20.94%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Girona FC (Local): 69.14%; Celta Fortuna (Visit): 11.97%; Draw: 18.90%. For Celta Fortuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.46%EV -3.90%E -2.81%K -10.00%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 11.03%EV +4.71%E +0.538%K +0.608%G +0.029%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.51%EV -6.46%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.85%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.19%EV -0.677%E -0.082%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.96%EV -7.41%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 15:35
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV -1.28%E -0.155%K -0.176%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -0.793%E -0.151%K -0.187%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -1.28%E -0.155%K -0.176%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.56%EV -11.50%E -8.99%K -41.09%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.01%EV -1.87%E -0.228%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -7.41%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 16:25
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.59%E -3.33%K -12.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 15:35
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 15:45
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -7.36%E -5.49%K -21.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -7.41%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 15:35
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -14.97%E -3.33%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 16:30
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.14%EV -9.43%E -7.20%K -30.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.27%E -0.533%K -0.610%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 15:35
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.03%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.85%EV -7.26%E -0.937%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -5.28%E -3.86%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.30%EV -9.05%E -1.19%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -5.28%E -3.86%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.30%EV -9.05%E -1.19%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 16:25
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -5.28%E -3.86%K -14.28%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.30%EV -9.05%E -1.19%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 16:25
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.33%K -12.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -10.24%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 16:25
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 15:45
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.84%EV -12.13%E -2.61%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -5.97%E -4.39%K -16.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 16:25
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -10.24%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 15:54
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -10.24%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 15:54
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -10.12%E -7.79%K -33.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -10.25%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -14.97%E -3.33%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 16:25
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.64%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.34%EV -11.45%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 15:50
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.64%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.34%EV -11.45%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 15:45
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.91%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -13.24%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 15:45
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.05%EV -3.21%E -2.29%K -8.02%G +0.000%7.24I 13.81%NM 13.16%EV -13.36%E -1.85%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.79%EV -4.19%E -0.827%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.64%EV -13.84%E -1.92%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.30%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 15:50
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:45
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:45
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 15:45
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.12%E -7.79%K -33.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -5.52%E -1.10%K -1.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 04:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.05%EV -8.74%E -6.62%K -27.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 05:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.05%EV -8.74%E -6.62%K -27.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 05:34
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -8.05%E -6.05%K -24.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -14.97%E -3.33%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.77%EV -8.74%E -6.62%K -27.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.12%E -7.79%K -33.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -16.23%E -2.32%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.09%EV -9.43%E -7.20%K -30.42%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.93%EV -17.43%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -11.19%E -2.38%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.76%EV -8.74%E -6.62%K -27.31%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -19.23%E -2.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -3.63%E -0.711%K -0.885%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 68.18%EV -12.89%E -10.23%K -49.57%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.73%EV -19.23%E -2.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.09%EV -14.97%E -3.33%K -4.28%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-24 15:45
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -22.22%E -3.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 15:45
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -22.22%E -3.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -22.22%E -3.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.67%E -4.94%K -19.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -22.22%E -3.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.08%E -2.84%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.08%EV -9.43%E -7.20%K -30.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -22.22%E -3.42%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.20%EV -7.41%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 67.63%EV -14.27%E -11.51%K -59.46%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.31%EV -24.61%E -3.91%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.06%EV -16.86%E -3.83%K -4.96%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-24 16:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Matchbook◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-24 16:25
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.57%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-10-24 16:25
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.83%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.37%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.80%2.3%2026-10-24 16:25

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