Language:English
Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Celta Fortuna (Local)
Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV +3.33%
Edge +0.883%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 3.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.43%27.29%27.39%29.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.313.353.7734.48%30.19%29.85%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sabadell FC (Visit)
Prediction 44.45%2.25fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.39%44.59%44.38%46.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.092.092.2053.48%47.92%47.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.433%
Kelly -0.606%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%28.12%28.23%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.79%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Fortuna (Local): 27.41%; Sabadell FC (Visit): 44.45%; Draw: 28.14%. For Celta Fortuna (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.33%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.43%EV +3.33%E +0.883%K +1.20%G +0.040% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.54%EV -8.43%E -4.09%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.03%EV -3.77%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-26 16:03 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.33%E -0.369%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -1.33%E -0.369%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -12.43%E -6.31%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 16:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.39%EV -3.25%E -0.920%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -3.09%E -1.42%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -3.77%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-26 16:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.54%E -3.62%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -1.52%E -0.433%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -1.52%E -0.433%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.09%E -5.55%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -15.58%E -5.19%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -4.43%E -2.06%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -5.74%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -3.09%E -1.42%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 16:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.29%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.36%EV -7.71%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-26 16:11 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-26 16:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.09%EV -7.09%E -3.39%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 16:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.09%E -5.55%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-26 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.09%E -1.42%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 16:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.09%E -1.42%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-26 16:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.54%E -3.62%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 16:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.54%E -3.62%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 16:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-26 16:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-26 16:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.21%EV -10.10%E -3.08%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.09%E -5.55%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.16%EV -10.80%E -3.41%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-26 16:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-26 16:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -2.20%E -1.00%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.74%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -2.20%E -1.00%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.74%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -2.20%E -1.00%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.74%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -2.20%E -1.00%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.74%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.87%E -4.33%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-26 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -11.09%E -5.55%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-26 16:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.90%EV -13.66%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 45.32%EV -16.87%E -9.02%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.78%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-09-26 16:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -5.76%E -2.72%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -5.76%E -2.72%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -5.76%E -2.72%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -5.76%E -2.72%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -16.40%E -5.38%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -16.40%E -5.38%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -16.40%E -5.38%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -6.65%E -3.17%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-26 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.53%EV -20.52%E -7.07%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 42.39%EV -10.20%E -5.05%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.08%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-26 16:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47% | 0.3% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47% | 0.3% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47% | 0.3% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.87% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39% | 2.1% | 2026-09-26 16:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.45% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.61% | 2.8% | 2026-09-26 16:25 |