Language:English
Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad B
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Celta Fortuna (Local)
Prediction 38.96%2.57fair odd
EV +3.25%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.13%38.74%39.01%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.412.382.6548.78%41.46%42.02%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Sociedad B (Visit)
Prediction 33.28%3.00fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -0.934%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.13%33.41%33.26%36.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.692.702.9541.15%37.20%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.76%3.60fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -0.814%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%27.85%27.73%30.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.253.5033.33%30.44%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Fortuna (Local): 38.96%; Real Sociedad B (Visit): 33.28%; Draw: 27.76%. For Celta Fortuna (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV +3.25%E +1.23%K +1.97%G +0.064% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -15.13%E -5.93%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV +3.25%E +1.23%K +1.97%G +0.064% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -15.13%E -5.93%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV +3.25%E +1.23%K +1.97%G +0.064% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -15.13%E -5.93%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV +3.25%E +1.23%K +1.97%G +0.064% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -15.13%E -5.93%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -10.14%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -2.85%E -0.814%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -18.46%E -7.54%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-10 18:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -18.46%E -7.54%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-10 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -18.46%E -7.54%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-10 18:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -18.46%E -7.54%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-10 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.87%EV -19.13%E -7.87%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-10 18:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -0.647%E -0.254%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.87%EV -19.13%E -7.87%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-10 18:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -2.60%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -11.81%E -4.45%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.85%E -0.814%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -2.60%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -2.60%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.40%E -2.55%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -2.60%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.61%EV -19.13%E -7.87%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.04%EV -3.37%E -1.36%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.82%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.14%EV -4.52%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -4.54%E -1.85%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.29%EV -5.71%E -2.36%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.90%EV -3.82%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.80%EV -5.07%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -6.49%E -2.70%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -16.73%E -5.58%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.27%EV -2.82%E -0.966%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.27%EV -2.82%E -0.966%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.27%EV -2.82%E -0.966%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -12.47%E -4.74%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.27%E -3.06%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -12.47%E -4.74%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -7.66%E -3.23%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -12.80%E -4.89%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -7.66%E -3.23%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -12.80%E -4.89%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.44%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -5.15%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -8.44%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -8.44%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -8.44%E -3.59%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.43%EV -8.83%E -3.77%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.61%EV -5.81%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -8.40%E -2.55%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 38.90%EV -8.83%E -3.77%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.10%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 18:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 18:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -10.14%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -5.63%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.79%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.95%E -4.50%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.14%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -13.95%E -4.50%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.39%E -4.52%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.81%EV -12.80%E -4.89%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -11.18%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-10 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 39.32%EV -11.56%E -5.09%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.05%EV -10.14%E -3.76%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.63%EV -10.34%E -3.20%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -12.34%E -5.48%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -11.81%E -4.45%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -8.40%E -2.55%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -12.34%E -5.48%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.95%E -4.50%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-10 18:47 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.82%EV -20.13%E -9.82%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.19%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.99%EV -13.95%E -4.50%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 38.02% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 33.00% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.98% | 0.0% | 2026-10-10 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.09% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33% | 2.3% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |