Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CD Mirandés v Cádiz CF

Inicio: 2026-03-13 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CD Mirandés (Local)

Predicción 43.05%2.32momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -0.808%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.95%43.05%43.08%44.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.162.152.2851.28%46.35%46.51%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cádiz CF (Visitante)

Predicción 28.23%3.54momio equitativo
EV +2.18%
Ventaja +0.603%
Kelly +0.834%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.73%28.21%28.12%30.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.183.103.6234.72%31.47%32.26%27.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.72%3.48momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.349%
Kelly -0.492%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.60%28.74%28.80%30.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.183.203.4436.36%31.43%31.25%29.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: CD Mirandés (Local): 43.05%; Cádiz CF (Visitante): 28.23%; Empate: 28.72%. Para Cádiz CF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.54. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.62, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.18%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.78%EV -4.86%E -2.20%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV +2.18%E +0.603%K +0.834%G +0.018%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -5.80%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 19:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.64%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -1.20%E -0.344%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.92%EV -4.65%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.64%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -1.20%E -0.344%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.92%EV -4.65%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 18:40
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.73%E -4.12%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.60%EV -2.90%E -0.842%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.60%EV -1.20%E -0.349%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 19:25
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.22%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:10
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.22%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.79%EV -8.30%E -3.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.78%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-13 19:25
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:05
Bovada🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.22%EV -8.30%E -3.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:25
BetAnything🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.22%EV -8.30%E -3.90%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:25
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.35%E -0.691%K -0.979%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 18:55
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-13 18:24
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -11.74%E -5.73%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:13
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-13 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -13.84%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-13 19:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -13.84%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-13 18:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.26%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -5.22%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.26%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -13.84%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.67%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.22%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.67%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.22%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.67%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.84%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 19:20
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -11.08%E -3.52%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 09:39
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -11.08%E -3.52%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 09:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-13 09:39
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-13 09:39
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-13 09:39
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-13 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-13 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.64%EV -10.39%E -3.33%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-13 19:23
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-13 18:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -11.74%E -5.73%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-13 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.22%EV -13.04%E -6.45%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.16%EV -12.49%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -12.40%E -4.07%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-13 18:50
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-13 09:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.74%E -5.73%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.47%EV -11.54%E -3.75%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-13 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.81%EV -16.05%E -8.23%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.37%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%EV -19.58%E -6.99%K -10.88%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-13 19:09
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 19:25
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 19:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 19:25
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 19:25
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 19:25
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.95%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.95%EV -16.73%E -5.67%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.44%EV -11.74%E -5.73%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.49%EV -16.73%E -5.67%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-13 09:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -6.15%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -18.14%E -6.26%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-13 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -6.15%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -18.14%E -6.26%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-13 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.29%EV -13.90%E -6.95%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.68%EV -18.70%E -6.49%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.03%EV -21.02%E -7.64%K -12.01%G +0.000%21.1%2026-03-13 17:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-03-13 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-03-13 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-03-13 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-03-13 19:20
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%2.3%2026-03-13 19:20
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-03-13 19:20