Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CD Eldense v Mallorca

Inicio: 2026-09-05 19:02 UTC

Final: CD Eldense 0–0 Mallorca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CD Eldense (Local)

Predicción 26.76%3.74momio equitativo
EV -0.997%
Ventaja -0.269%
Kelly -0.369%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.88%26.77%26.71%28.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.403.7032.26%29.55%29.41%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mallorca (Visitante)

Predicción 45.49%2.20momio equitativo
EV -3.56%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -3.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.79%45.50%45.53%47.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.032.042.1252.36%49.27%49.02%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.75%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.32%
Ventaja -0.658%
Kelly -0.919%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.06%27.73%27.76%29.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.263.253.5233.90%30.70%30.77%28.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: CD Eldense (Local): 26.76%; Mallorca (Visitante): 45.49%; Empate: 27.75%. Para CD Eldense (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.74. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.70, con un valor esperado de -0.997%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -0.997%E -0.269%K -0.369%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -11.29%E -5.79%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 09:35
Pinnacle🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.87%EV -1.53%E -0.416%K -0.572%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.29%E -3.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.92%EV -5.37%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 15:10
1xBet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.37%EV -2.60%E -0.715%K -0.986%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -5.83%E -2.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -2.32%E -0.658%K -0.919%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 08:30
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.01%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.97%EV -8.56%E -4.26%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 14:58
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -5.28%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.39%EV -8.56%E -4.26%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.09%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:25
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 15:59
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 15:07
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:35
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.29%EV -6.88%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.74%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.97%EV -9.25%E -2.83%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 19:04
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.69%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.69%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.69%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.69%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.69%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:29
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -3.56%E -1.68%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.87%E -0.820%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.47%E -2.13%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.87%E -0.820%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 15:55
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 15:40
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 15:40
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 15:55
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 14:59
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 15:00
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 04:10
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -9.93%E -5.01%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:00
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -11.29%E -5.79%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 15:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -10.36%E -3.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.51%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 15:49
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.36%E -3.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -6.29%E -3.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.36%E -3.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -6.29%E -3.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 18:30
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.36%E -3.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -6.29%E -3.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 18:29
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.36%E -3.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -6.29%E -3.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 05:45
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.03%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 05:44
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 05:45
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.74%E -3.29%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 05:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 19:04
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-01 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 04:10
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 04:10
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 04:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -8.11%E -4.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.63%EV -12.66%E -6.59%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 19:04
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -11.70%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.76%EV -13.11%E -6.87%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.75%EV -12.58%E -3.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -13.04%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 15:40
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -13.04%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 06:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -13.04%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.79%EV -8.11%E -4.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -15.36%E -5.04%K -7.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -13.04%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.79%EV -8.11%E -4.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -15.36%E -5.04%K -7.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -14.38%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.88%EV -9.93%E -5.01%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.09%EV -15.71%E -4.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 43.99%EV -11.75%E -6.06%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.93%EV -18.13%E -6.15%K -9.30%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-03 18:30
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -17.05%E -5.50%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -9.81%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-02 19:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.04%3.4%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.04%3.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.35%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.94%3.7%2026-09-04 11:15
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.75%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%3.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.19%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%4.1%2026-09-04 10:30
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%4.6%2026-09-04 14:05