Language:English
CD Castellón v AD Ceuta FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
CD Castellón (Local)
Prediction 74.96%1.33fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -11.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.28%75.08%74.93%77.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.221.221.2987.72%81.92%81.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visit)
Prediction 9.74%10.27fair odd
EV +11.98%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.137%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.20%9.73%9.78%11.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.649.5011.5012.50%10.37%10.53%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.30%6.54fair odd
EV -0.563%
Edge -0.087%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.15%15.20%15.29%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.006.006.5020.00%16.67%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CD Castellón (Local): 74.96%; AD Ceuta FC (Visit): 9.74%; Draw: 15.30%. For AD Ceuta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.27. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +11.98%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.137% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +11.98%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.137% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +11.98%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.137% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 15:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +11.98%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.137% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +11.98%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.137% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +7.11%E +0.646%K +0.711%G +0.051% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.39%E -0.702%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.92%EV -4.79%E -3.78%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 10.93I 9.15%NM 8.82%EV +6.43%E +0.588%K +0.647%G +0.042% | 6.32I 15.82%NM 15.26%EV -3.32%E -0.525%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.96%EV -7.04%E -5.68%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -4.39%E -0.702%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 10:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -10.79%E -9.07%K -56.80%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.91%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -10.79%E -9.07%K -56.80%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.91%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 15:36 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -10.79%E -9.07%K -56.80%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.91%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -10.79%E -9.07%K -56.80%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.91%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 15:36 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -11.54%E -9.78%K -64.12%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -11.54%E -9.78%K -64.12%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-04 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.54%EV -12.29%E -10.51%K -72.30%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.53%EV +2.24%E +0.213%K +0.236%G +0.005% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-02 15:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 15:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.04%E -5.68%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 10:36 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 10:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -10.04%E -8.37%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 15:41 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -10.04%E -8.37%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -2.63%E -0.263%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -23.51%E -4.70%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.21%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.49%EV -4.58%E -0.467%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -0.563%E -0.087%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 12:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.70%EV -3.30%E -2.55%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.90%EV -6.52%E -0.679%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.39%EV -11.27%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 16:21 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.78%EV -7.04%E -5.68%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.28%EV -7.04%E -5.68%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 16:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 12:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-04 08:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-04 16:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -7.50%E -0.789%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-04 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.76%EV -8.47%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-04 14:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.76%EV -8.47%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -6.68%E -1.10%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-04 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.89%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.88%EV -9.93%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-04 16:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.39%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.11%EV -10.42%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.39%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.11%EV -10.42%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.39%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.11%EV -10.42%E -1.13%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.54%E -4.40%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -12.36%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -12.36%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-04 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.30%EV -9.29%E -7.68%K -44.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -12.36%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -4.39%E -0.702%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-04 12:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.73%EV -7.79%E -6.34%K -33.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -12.36%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -14.33%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.01%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.57%EV -14.80%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 15:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.60%EV -10.04%E -8.37%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.23%EV -14.80%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -9.74%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-04 16:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.52%EV -11.54%E -9.78%K -64.12%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.05%EV -14.80%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.43%EV -12.80%E -2.25%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -17.23%E -2.03%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -8.21%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -10.04%E -8.37%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -17.23%E -2.03%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -15.86%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -10.04%E -8.37%K -50.21%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -17.23%E -2.03%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -15.86%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-04 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -6.29%E -5.04%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.86%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.28%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-04 15:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.28%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-04 15:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.28%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -12.04%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-04 15:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -8.54%E -7.00%K -38.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -15.86%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-04 15:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 73.66%EV -14.54%E -12.75%K -103.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.50%EV -22.10%E -2.76%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 15.84%EV -18.92%E -3.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 19.1% | 2026-10-04 16:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.37% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60% | 0.7% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.95% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.56% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.48% | 1.5% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.95% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.56% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.48% | 1.5% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.61% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.53% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.86% | 2.0% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.76% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.59% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 16:30 |