The School of Odds
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Burgos CF v Sabadell FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 19:00 UTC

Final: Burgos CF 1–0 Sabadell FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Burgos CF (Local)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%31.56%31.41%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.853.1338.46%34.78%35.09%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabadell FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV -0.780%
Edge -0.272%
Kelly -0.417%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.32%34.45%34.62%36.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.672.682.8743.48%37.50%37.31%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.01%2.94fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.52%33.99%33.97%35.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.742.8540.00%36.79%36.50%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Burgos CF (Local): 31.42%; Sabadell FC (Visit): 34.57%; Draw: 34.01%. For Sabadell FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.87, with an expected value of -0.780%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.90%EV -1.65%E -0.528%K -0.776%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.79%EV -3.89%E -1.40%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -4.10%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.60%E -0.837%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -7.35%E -2.74%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -7.50%E -2.76%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.60%E -0.837%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -7.35%E -2.74%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -7.50%E -2.76%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 18:54
BetAnything🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.60%E -0.837%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -7.35%E -2.74%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.57%EV -7.50%E -2.76%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 18:55
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -4.17%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -4.17%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.78%E -1.71%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 18:59
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 18:49
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 18:43
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.39%EV -7.00%E -2.60%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.78%EV -9.54%E -3.59%K -5.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 18:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -5.74%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.33%EV -6.68%E -2.25%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.72%EV -7.35%E -2.74%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.96%EV -6.82%E -2.49%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 18:49
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.31%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 18:43
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -7.31%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.78%EV -5.97%E -2.19%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -10.90%E -4.16%K -6.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -7.31%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.78%EV -5.97%E -2.19%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -10.90%E -4.16%K -6.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 18:59
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -7.62%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -0.780%E -0.272%K -0.417%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.64%EV -6.82%E -2.49%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 18:59
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-18 18:49
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -9.88%E -3.73%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 18:49
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -10.90%E -4.16%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.79%EV -11.15%E -4.34%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.39%EV -11.58%E -4.45%K -7.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 18:59
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 18:49
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -9.51%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 18:59
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -3.08%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.00%EV -11.84%E -4.64%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -9.88%E -3.73%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 18:59
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:58
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 18:58
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -10.90%E -4.16%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 18:44
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -9.08%E -3.45%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -11.58%E -4.45%K -7.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 18:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -9.08%E -3.45%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -11.58%E -4.45%K -7.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 29.96%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.48%EV -20.49%E -8.91%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.56%EV -14.98%E -5.99%K -9.99%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-18 18:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -4.78%E -1.71%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 18:24
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.16%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.16%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.16%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 18:10
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.16%EV -8.39%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -6.48%E -2.36%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 18:08
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -9.08%E -3.45%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -9.08%E -3.45%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.89%EV -13.59%E -4.94%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.39%EV -11.84%E -4.64%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -11.58%E -4.45%K -7.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-18 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -15.16%E -5.62%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.18%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -16.74%E -6.32%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -8.18%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.89%EV -18.31%E -7.04%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.21%EV -13.57%E -5.43%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.89%EV -11.58%E -4.45%K -7.24%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-18 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%0.7%2026-10-18 18:45
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%0.7%2026-10-18 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%0.7%2026-10-18 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%0.7%2026-10-18 18:55
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.52%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.70%1.5%2026-10-18 18:55
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.0%2026-10-18 18:45