The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Burgos CF v CD Castellón

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 17:31 UTC

Final: Burgos CF 1–1 CD Castellón

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Burgos CF (Local)

Prediction 24.87%4.02fair odd
EV +9.20%
Edge +2.10%
Kelly +2.71%
Growth +0.250%

assuming max odds 4.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.10%24.71%25.22%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.653.554.3930.30%27.38%28.17%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CD Castellón (Visit)

Prediction 46.27%2.16fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.97%46.41%46.27%49.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.961.952.0856.50%50.89%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.86%3.46fair odd
EV -0.432%
Edge -0.125%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.83%28.89%28.51%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.213.253.4534.72%31.11%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Burgos CF (Local): 24.87%; CD Castellón (Visit): 46.27%; Draw: 28.86%. For Burgos CF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.39I 22.78%NM 22.10%EV +9.20%E +2.10%K +2.71%G +0.250%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.10%EV -4.69%E -2.28%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 17:25
Bovada🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV +3.23%E +0.778%K +1.02%G +0.033%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.92%EV -8.86%E -4.50%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV +1.98%E +0.484%K +0.640%G +0.013%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.16%EV -5.62%E -2.75%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV +1.98%E +0.484%K +0.640%G +0.013%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.16%EV -5.62%E -2.75%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 17:05
BetAnything🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV +1.98%E +0.484%K +0.640%G +0.013%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.16%EV -5.62%E -2.75%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 17:05
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +1.98%E +0.484%K +0.640%G +0.013%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-01 17:19
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -0.503%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 17:05
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -0.503%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.02%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 17:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -0.503%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -15.33%E -8.38%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-01 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 23.73%EV -2.49%E -0.636%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.27%EV -7.01%E -3.49%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.00%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 16:55
DraftKings🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -16.31%E -5.62%K -8.58%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 22.84%EV -3.49%E -0.899%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.39%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.77%EV -16.88%E -5.86%K -8.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 17:24
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -3.77%E -1.81%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-01 17:10
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 17:00
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -16.31%E -5.62%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-01 17:15
1xBet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.39%EV -6.97%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.01%EV -6.54%E -3.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.60%EV -0.721%E -0.210%K -0.295%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 17:25
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.432%E -0.125%K -0.176%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.432%E -0.125%K -0.176%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.432%E -0.125%K -0.176%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.432%E -0.125%K -0.176%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.75%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.00%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -0.432%E -0.125%K -0.176%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.16%E -2.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 17:05
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 17:05
Betsson🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 17:05
NordicBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 17:05
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -11.70%E -3.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 17:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -11.70%E -3.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.24%EV -13.02%E -6.93%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.27%EV -14.29%E -4.81%K -7.25%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-01 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 17:20
theScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-01 17:05
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 16:58
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.781%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 16:58
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 17:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.98%EV -8.39%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 17:05
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.98%EV -8.39%E -4.24%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 16:50
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-01 17:19
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -10.71%E -5.55%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 17:00
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -10.71%E -5.55%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 17:00
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -10.71%E -5.55%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 17:00
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -10.71%E -5.55%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -14.18%E -4.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -7.47%E -3.73%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -14.18%E -4.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -11.17%E -5.82%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -14.18%E -4.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -11.17%E -5.82%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-01 17:00
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.43%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.43%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 16:50
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.43%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -15.43%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.78%E -5.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -15.43%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.06%EV -16.67%E -4.98%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 47.42%EV -18.11%E -10.23%K -23.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.52%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%19.1%2026-11-01 17:10
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -17.91%E -5.43%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -11.63%E -6.09%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-01 16:57
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -17.91%E -5.43%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.97%EV -10.24%E -5.28%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.60%EV -11.98%E -3.93%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-01 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -17.91%E -5.43%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.83%EV -15.33%E -8.38%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.20%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%16.7%2026-11-01 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 23.00%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.96%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%-0.0%2026-11-01 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 17:25
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 17:25
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.7%2026-11-01 17:25

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.