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Andorra CF v Real Sociedad B

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Andorra CF (Local)

Prediction 60.84%1.64fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -3.68%
Kelly -10.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.45%60.79%61.16%61.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.511.5569.44%66.32%66.23%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad B (Visit)

Prediction 16.89%5.92fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.503%
Kelly -0.609%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.34%16.91%16.74%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.335.405.7521.05%18.77%18.52%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.27%4.49fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -0.981%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.29%22.30%22.10%23.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.104.104.3026.32%24.37%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andorra CF (Local): 60.84%; Real Sociedad B (Visit): 16.89%; Draw: 22.27%. For Real Sociedad B (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.75, with an expected value of -2.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.70%E -3.68%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -2.89%E -0.503%K -0.609%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -4.22%E -0.981%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 16:46
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.92%E -4.52%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 20:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.92%E -4.52%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.92%E -4.52%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.84%EV -6.92%E -4.52%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.27%EV -10.49%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.84%EV -6.92%E -4.52%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.27%EV -10.49%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -7.53%E -4.95%K -14.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -2.89%E -0.503%K -0.609%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -4.22%E -0.981%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 16:46
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.45%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 19:59
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -15.56%E -3.11%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -6.45%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.56%E -3.11%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.90%E -2.73%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 08:25
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -9.96%E -6.73%K -20.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -11.33%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -6.45%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-07 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -10.57%E -7.19%K -22.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -15.56%E -3.11%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -6.45%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 04:10
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.45%EV -12.40%E -8.61%K -28.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -19.78%E -4.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -15.36%E -4.04%K -5.48%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-06 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.