The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Almería v Oviedo

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:00 UTC

Final: Almería 2–2 Oviedo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almería (Local)

Prediction 53.42%1.87fair odd
EV -0.630%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.732%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.10%53.53%53.42%55.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.701.711.8664.52%58.65%58.48%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oviedo (Visit)

Prediction 21.20%4.72fair odd
EV +3.87%
Edge +0.790%
Kelly +0.992%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%21.11%21.17%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.404.304.9025.00%22.72%23.26%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.597%
Kelly -0.806%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.37%25.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.583.603.8529.85%27.91%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 53.42%; Oviedo (Visit): 21.20%; Draw: 25.38%. For Oviedo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +3.87%E +0.790%K +0.992%G +0.038%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +3.87%E +0.790%K +0.992%G +0.038%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +3.87%E +0.790%K +0.992%G +0.038%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +3.87%E +0.790%K +0.992%G +0.038%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +3.87%E +0.790%K +0.992%G +0.038%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:01
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.00%EV -4.37%E -2.44%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 20.01%EV +2.38%E +0.494%K +0.623%G +0.015%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -5.60%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:49
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.95%EV -8.64%E -5.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -4.83%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 18:39
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.64%E -5.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 18:48
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 18:20
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -11.85%E -7.18%K -18.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -0.371%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.67%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -2.49%E -0.541%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.94%EV -12.92%E -7.92%K -20.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -2.49%E -0.541%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.94%EV -12.92%E -7.92%K -20.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -2.49%E -0.541%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -13.45%E -8.30%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -2.49%E -0.541%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 18:20
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.49%EV -8.11%E -4.71%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -3.55%E -0.780%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.43%EV -8.64%E -5.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -4.61%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.89%EV -5.09%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 18:01
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -4.61%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.18%E -5.40%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -4.61%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -13.45%E -8.30%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.86%EV -13.45%E -8.30%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -4.61%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 18:31
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.57%EV -4.90%E -2.75%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -2.30%E -0.597%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -10.78%E -6.46%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.94%EV -16.66%E -10.68%K -29.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%EV -6.73%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.58%EV -14.99%E -4.47%K -6.38%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-24 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.78%E -6.46%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -8.21%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -4.90%E -2.75%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -4.83%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:48
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -3.84%E -2.13%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 18:49
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.06%EV -8.11%E -4.71%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 18:40
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.06%EV -8.11%E -4.71%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -8.64%E -5.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -8.85%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.91%E -2.79%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -9.91%E -2.33%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.50%EV -8.64%E -5.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 18:40
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 18:48
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 18:58
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 18:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.51%E -3.72%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -9.18%E -5.40%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -6.10%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -10.78%E -6.46%K -16.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 18:52
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.70%EV -13.45%E -8.30%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -10.97%E -2.61%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -13.72%E -4.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-24 18:40
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.10%EV -0.630%E -0.339%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.79%EV -11.61%E -2.78%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.11%EV -7.63%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 18:59
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -7.04%E -4.05%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -13.09%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 18:48
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -5.44%E -3.07%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -13.09%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -13.72%E -4.03%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.29%EV -10.25%E -6.10%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -13.09%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -8.64%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.77%EV -9.71%E -5.75%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -13.09%E -3.19%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 54.19%EV -17.19%E -11.09%K -31.26%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 20.74%EV -14.15%E -3.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.07%EV -14.99%E -4.47%K -6.38%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-24 18:40
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.21%E -3.80%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.21%E -3.80%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.21%E -3.80%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 18:49
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -7.57%E -4.38%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -15.21%E -3.80%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.18%E -3.19%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-10-24 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.08%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10%0.9%2026-10-24 18:55
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.76%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-10-24 18:55
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.85%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.00%1.3%2026-10-24 18:55
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.86%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50%1.8%2026-10-24 18:49