Language:English
Almería v Burgos CF
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Almería (Local)
Prediction 61.33%1.63fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.00%61.39%61.26%62.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.511.501.6072.99%66.13%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Burgos CF (Visit)
Prediction 15.85%6.31fair odd
EV +6.65%
Edge +0.988%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 6.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.31%15.79%15.90%18.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.635.606.7320.00%17.76%17.86%14.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV +0.868%
Edge +0.196%
Kelly +0.254%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%22.82%22.84%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.953.904.4227.03%25.31%25.64%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 61.33%; Burgos CF (Visit): 15.85%; Draw: 22.82%. For Burgos CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.93%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.31%EV +6.65%E +0.988%K +1.16%G +0.077% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.76%EV -3.47%E -0.820%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 14:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -0.954%E -0.153%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -4.15%E -0.989%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 14:13 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.08%EV -8.62%E -5.78%K -17.58%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.80%EV -0.954%E -0.153%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.04%EV -7.39%E -4.89%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.11%EV -1.75%E -0.282%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.04%EV -7.39%E -4.89%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.11%EV -1.75%E -0.282%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.04%EV -7.39%E -4.89%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.11%EV -1.75%E -0.282%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.11%EV -4.94%E -3.18%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.15%E -0.989%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -4.15%E -0.989%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-03 14:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 14:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 13:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.20%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 14:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -4.92%E -0.819%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.98%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 15.89%EV -7.29%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.15%E -0.989%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -8.09%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 13:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-03 13:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-03 13:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.74%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.46%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-03 14:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -9.67%E -1.70%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -7.58%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -9.67%E -1.70%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -7.58%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 13:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.53%EV -9.23%E -6.24%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.26%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.16%E -4.03%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -12.84%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.46%EV -6.78%E -4.46%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -12.84%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-03 13:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.33%EV -10.46%E -7.16%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -12.84%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -12.84%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-03 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -11.68%E -8.11%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.84%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-03 13:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -1.87%E -1.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -1.87%E -1.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 13:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -1.87%E -1.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -1.87%E -1.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 13:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.60%EV -1.87%E -1.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 13:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.98%EV -10.46%E -7.16%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.54%EV -9.86%E -2.50%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 13:47 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.12%EV -12.30%E -8.60%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.18%EV -14.42%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.70%EV -12.14%E -3.15%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV -16.80%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV -16.80%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV -16.80%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -8.00%E -5.33%K -16.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV -16.80%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -3.10%E -1.96%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.58%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.44%EV +0.868%E +0.196%K +0.254%G +0.002% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.08%EV -4.32%E -2.77%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.76%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.08%EV -4.32%E -2.77%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.76%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.08%EV -4.32%E -2.77%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.76%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.08%EV -4.32%E -2.77%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.76%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 61.20%EV -15.98%E -11.66%K -43.18%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.44%EV -19.18%E -3.76%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.36%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-10-03 13:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.00%EV -5.55%E -3.60%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -20.76%E -4.15%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -15.56%E -4.21%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.00%EV -5.55%E -3.60%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -20.76%E -4.15%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -15.56%E -4.21%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.00%EV -5.55%E -3.60%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -20.76%E -4.15%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -15.56%E -4.21%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.02% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.27% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.71% | 0.1% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 0.2% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 0.2% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 0.2% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.13% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52% | 2.1% | 2026-10-03 14:05 |