Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Albacete v Oviedo

Inicio: 2026-08-29 17:01 UTC

Final: Albacete 0–1 Oviedo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Albacete (Local)

Predicción 39.17%2.55momio equitativo
EV -4.04%
Ventaja -1.65%
Kelly -2.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.78%39.18%39.19%39.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.162.332.352.4546.30%42.84%42.55%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Oviedo (Visitante)

Predicción 30.26%3.31momio equitativo
EV -0.758%
Ventaja -0.231%
Kelly -0.332%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.70%30.19%30.27%31.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.023.003.2835.09%33.07%33.33%30.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.58%3.27momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.384%
Kelly -0.556%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.19%30.63%30.53%32.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.993.003.2335.71%33.43%33.33%30.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Albacete (Local): 39.17%; Oviedo (Visitante): 30.26%; Empate: 30.58%. Para Oviedo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.31. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.28, con un valor esperado de -0.758%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -0.758%E -0.231%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.01%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-29 16:15
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -3.69%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 16:40
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.25%EV -5.21%E -2.15%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.35%EV -8.32%E -2.75%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.41%EV -1.24%E -0.384%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -1.67%E -0.513%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -1.67%E -0.513%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:05
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -1.67%E -0.513%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:05
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -7.72%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -3.69%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:41
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.74%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 16:39
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 10:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 09:10
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 16:20
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.80%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-28 14:29
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 16:10
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -11.94%E -4.15%K -6.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 14:30
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.84%EV -7.17%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.25%E -4.27%K -6.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.84%EV -7.17%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.25%E -4.27%K -6.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:20
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:56
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 16:20
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.22%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.54%EV -5.60%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -9.80%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -3.18%E -0.993%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -12.86%E -4.51%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 16:40
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:41
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:41
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 16:41
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -8.35%E -3.57%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.96%EV -8.74%E -3.75%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 16:45
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:53
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:54
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 16:15
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 16:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 16:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -12.86%E -4.47%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -12.86%E -4.47%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -12.86%E -4.47%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 16:46
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -10.70%E -4.69%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 16:20
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -10.70%E -4.69%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -10.70%E -4.69%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 16:20
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -10.70%E -4.69%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.65%EV -11.09%E -4.89%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.32%EV -7.11%E -2.32%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -11.87%E -5.28%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -9.80%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.87%E -5.28%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.24%EV -13.77%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -6.74%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 16:41
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.61%EV -12.66%E -5.68%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.46%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.61%EV -12.66%E -5.68%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.46%EV -11.33%E -3.91%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.18%EV -13.05%E -5.88%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.30%EV -13.16%E -4.59%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.52%EV -12.86%E -4.51%K -6.95%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-29 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -13.83%E -6.29%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -12.26%E -4.23%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -9.80%E -3.32%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-29 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 39.54%EV -15.40%E -7.13%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.96%EV -13.77%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.50%EV -14.39%E -5.14%K -7.99%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-29 16:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.98%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.00%3.12I 32.05%NM 32.02%0.1%2026-08-29 16:15
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.16%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.18%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-08-29 16:46
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.18%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-08-29 16:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.18%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-08-29 16:51
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.20%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%2.0%2026-08-29 16:56