The School of Odds
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AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijón

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 15:15 UTC

Final: AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Sporting Gijón

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AD Ceuta FC (Local)

Prediction 39.03%2.56fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.424%
Kelly +0.690%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.68%38.94%39.02%40.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.342.352.5948.78%42.71%42.55%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Gijón (Visit)

Prediction 32.04%3.12fair odd
EV +0.920%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.428%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%32.10%32.01%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.853.1538.46%35.03%35.09%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.93%3.46fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.57%28.96%28.98%30.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.123.3034.48%31.79%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 39.03%; Sporting Gijón (Visit): 32.04%; Draw: 28.93%. For AD Ceuta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.68%EV +1.10%E +0.424%K +0.690%G +0.008%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.45%EV -9.01%E -3.17%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -8.01%E -2.52%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.95%EV -2.81%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.39%EV -1.00%E -0.324%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.66%EV -5.41%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 15:10
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -4.37%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.37%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -4.37%E -1.78%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -15.10%E -5.70%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-01 15:05
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.32%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 14:29
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.32%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 15:05
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -6.32%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 15:09
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -6.32%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -9.74%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 15:13
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -6.32%E -2.63%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -9.74%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 15:13
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.89%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.43%E -2.32%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 15:10
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -5.49%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -7.73%E -2.68%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -7.43%E -2.32%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 14:35
Bovada🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.76%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.48%EV -6.13%E -2.09%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 15:10
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.43%E -2.32%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 15:10
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 15:10
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.10%E -2.98%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 15:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -7.88%E -3.34%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +0.920%E +0.292%K +0.428%G +0.004%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -7.88%E -3.34%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +0.920%E +0.292%K +0.428%G +0.004%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 15:10
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -7.88%E -3.34%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV +0.920%E +0.292%K +0.428%G +0.004%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.43%EV -7.88%E -3.34%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.20%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.37%EV -5.12%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 15:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.25%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 15:10
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.09%E -2.44%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 15:10
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.43%E -2.32%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -13.50%E -5.00%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 15:10
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -8.27%E -3.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-01 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 14:35
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 14:35
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 14:35
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.69%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-01 14:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 14:35
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 14:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -13.22%E -4.41%K -6.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -13.22%E -4.41%K -6.61%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 15:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.22%E -4.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.50%E -5.00%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 15:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.22%EV -11.00%E -4.83%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.22%EV -11.00%E -4.83%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.11%EV -11.00%E -4.83%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.85%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.05%EV -11.19%E -3.65%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 15:12
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -12.17%E -5.41%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.32%E -3.33%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-01 14:35
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -12.17%E -5.41%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.29%E -3.68%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -13.22%E -4.41%K -6.61%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-01 14:37
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.76%EV -12.17%E -5.41%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -16.70%E -6.42%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -8.88%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.7%2026-11-01 15:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.26%EV -13.34%E -6.01%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -11.90%E -4.33%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.05%EV -13.22%E -4.41%K -6.61%G +0.000%14.7%2026-11-01 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.04%EV -14.91%E -6.84%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.11%EV -15.10%E -5.70%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.85%EV -14.66%E -4.97%K -7.52%G +0.000%17.5%2026-11-01 14:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.55%EV -19.98%E -9.75%K -19.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.79%EV -13.50%E -5.00%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.66%EV -16.11%E -5.55%K -8.48%G +0.000%20.3%2026-11-01 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 15:10
Matchbook◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-11-01 15:05
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-11-01 15:10
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-11-01 15:10

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