Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd
EV -0.525%
Edge -0.182%
Kelly -0.279%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%34.65%34.53%37.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.632.8841.67%37.97%38.02%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Sociedad B (Visit)
Prediction 37.23%2.69fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.933%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.58%37.13%37.26%39.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.472.452.6246.51%40.53%40.82%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.25%28.22%28.20%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.4433.33%30.89%30.77%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 34.54%; Real Sociedad B (Visit): 37.23%; Draw: 28.23%. For AD Ceuta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.525%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -0.525%E -0.182%K -0.279%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.60%EV -8.40%E -3.42%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.43%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-26 11:56 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.20%EV -2.25%E -0.796%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.66%EV -4.31%E -1.68%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.14%EV -2.91%E -0.845%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-26 11:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -3.29%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-26 11:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 11:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.77%EV -6.05%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.96%EV -9.89%E -4.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 11:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.77%EV -6.05%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.96%EV -9.89%E -4.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 11:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.72%EV -6.40%E -2.36%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -4.68%E -1.83%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -6.74%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-26 11:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -6.74%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.74%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-26 11:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.74%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -7.43%E -2.77%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -2.44%E -0.933%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -7.43%E -2.77%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -2.44%E -0.933%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -7.43%E -2.77%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.92%EV -2.44%E -0.933%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.72%EV -7.43%E -2.77%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.08%EV -6.54%E -2.61%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -3.19%E -1.23%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.05%E -1.98%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.47%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.54%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.47%E -3.20%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 37.72%EV -10.26%E -4.26%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 11:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -9.16%E -3.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -9.16%E -3.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 11:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-26 11:53 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.31%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 11:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -15.32%E -5.11%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-26 11:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -8.77%E -3.58%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-26 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.87%EV -9.52%E -3.92%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.87%EV -9.52%E -3.92%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-26 10:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.50%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.66%EV -10.64%E -4.43%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.84%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-26 12:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.24%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 39.42%EV -19.94%E -9.28%K -17.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -12.50%E -4.03%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-09-26 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -13.65%E -5.46%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -12.50%E -5.32%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-26 12:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.61%EV -15.38%E -6.28%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.13%EV -12.50%E -5.32%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.26%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-26 12:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 35.16%EV -16.07%E -6.61%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 36.83%EV -13.61%E -5.87%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.01%EV -13.91%E -4.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -17.10%E -7.13%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -6.91%E -2.77%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-26 12:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.65% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.93% | 0.2% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.81% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.33% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.86% | 0.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.56% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.59% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85% | 0.5% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.56% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.59% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85% | 0.5% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.73% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01% | 1.4% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.29% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-26 11:50 |