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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Valencia v Real Betis

Inicio: 2026-08-25 19:00 UTC

Final: Valencia 0–1 Real Betis

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Valencia (Local)

Predicción 36.22%2.76momio equitativo
EV -0.385%
Ventaja -0.140%
Kelly -0.220%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.03%36.23%36.22%37.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.422.612.602.7541.32%38.28%38.46%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Real Betis (Visitante)

Predicción 34.38%2.91momio equitativo
EV -0.990%
Ventaja -0.344%
Kelly -0.527%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.09%34.42%34.38%36.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.742.752.8838.46%36.47%36.36%34.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.40%3.40momio equitativo
EV -0.929%
Ventaja -0.276%
Kelly -0.392%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.56%29.35%29.40%30.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.203.203.3733.33%31.23%31.25%29.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Valencia (Local): 36.22%; Real Betis (Visitante): 34.38%; Empate: 29.40%. Para Valencia (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.76. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.75, con un valor esperado de -0.385%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -0.385%E -0.140%K -0.220%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-25 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -0.385%E -0.140%K -0.220%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -9.93%E -3.79%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:29
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -0.385%E -0.140%K -0.220%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -9.93%E -3.79%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.49%EV -1.11%E -0.406%K -0.641%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.90%EV -4.75%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-25 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.16%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.16%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.16%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.16%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-25 18:39
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.78%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.50%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-25 18:54
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-25 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -10.62%E -4.08%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -2.20%E -0.813%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -10.62%E -4.08%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -11.81%E -3.94%K -5.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:49
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.31%EV -2.92%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.02%EV -1.68%E -0.587%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.67%EV -3.57%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-25 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-25 18:39
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.99%EV -4.73%E -1.80%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:50
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.99%EV -4.73%E -1.80%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:54
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.99%EV -4.73%E -1.80%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:55
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.99%EV -4.73%E -1.80%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:55
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.25%EV -5.09%E -1.94%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.53%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 18:49
Bovada🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.30%EV -5.46%E -2.09%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.08%EV -4.43%E -1.59%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-25 18:53
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.31%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.91%EV -1.68%E -0.587%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.78%EV -0.929%E -0.276%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-25 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.55%EV -0.990%E -0.344%K -0.527%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-25 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.55%EV -0.990%E -0.344%K -0.527%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.28%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-25 18:49
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-25 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:54
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:54
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:48
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:38
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:38
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 18:49
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -2.99%E -0.905%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-25 18:49
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 18:43
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.46%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-25 18:49
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-25 18:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-25 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-25 18:54
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-25 18:54
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-25 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.62%E -4.08%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-25 18:39
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -2.02%E -0.709%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 18:54
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:54
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.41%EV -8.72%E -3.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-25 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -5.46%E -1.99%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -7.40%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-25 18:54
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.93%E -3.79%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-25 18:54
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -9.58%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.87%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-25 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.34%E -5.10%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.54%EV -6.15%E -2.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.93%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.75%0.3%2026-08-25 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-08-25 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-08-25 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-08-25 18:50
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.95%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.20%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.85%1.5%2026-08-25 18:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-08-25 18:10