La escuela de los momios

Sevilla v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-03-21 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Predicción 43.22%2.31momio equitativo
EV +1.56%
Ventaja +0.664%
Kelly +1.16%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.32%43.24%43.26%44.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.202.202.3547.62%45.36%45.45%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 26.96%3.71momio equitativo
EV -0.782%
Ventaja -0.213%
Kelly -0.292%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.07%26.92%26.93%27.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.493.503.6831.25%28.65%28.57%27.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.82%3.35momio equitativo
EV -1.59%
Ventaja -0.482%
Kelly -0.691%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.75%29.84%29.80%31.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.133.103.3036.36%31.99%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.53%EV +1.56%E +0.664%K +1.16%G +0.018%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -4.29%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.98%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-21 19:09
Unibet (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.84%EV +0.264%E +0.114%K +0.200%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV -4.29%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 19:10
Svenska Spel2.32I 43.10%NM 41.84%EV +0.264%E +0.114%K +0.200%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV -4.29%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 19:09
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.05%EV -0.600%E -0.261%K -0.462%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -4.29%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.70%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 19:14
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.90%EV -1.46%E -0.642%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 19:14
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 41.90%EV -1.46%E -0.642%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 19:15
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.90%EV -1.46%E -0.642%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 19:15
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.90%EV -1.46%E -0.642%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.29%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 19:15
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 43.15%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -3.08%E -0.948%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 19:35
Marathon Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.94%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -2.40%E -0.663%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.38%EV -5.17%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-21 19:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 19:09
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 19:09
TABtouch2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 19:09
Pinnacle2.23I 44.84%NM 43.64%EV -3.63%E -1.63%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.59%EV -1.32%E -0.361%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.76%EV -2.48%E -0.760%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-21 19:50
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 42.06%EV -3.63%E -1.63%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 19:14
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -1.59%E -0.436%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-21 19:54
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -1.59%E -0.436%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.01%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-21 19:54
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 43.34%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.87%EV -3.48%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.79%EV -3.68%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-21 19:48
Codere (IT)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.95%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 19:49
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -4.06%E -1.83%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:54
1xBet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.782%E -0.213%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.63%EV -2.48%E -0.760%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-21 19:54
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.29%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 19:39
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 19:55
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:44
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -6.96%E -2.23%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 19:54
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 19:54
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 19:49
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:49
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:50
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:44
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 19:34
PMU (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 19:49
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:49
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:54
Parions Sport (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 19:49
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 19:14
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 19:55
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 19:14
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -4.92%E -2.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 19:15
Unibet (FR)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.69%EV -6.65%E -3.08%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.81%EV -5.10%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 19:54
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -1.59%E -0.482%K -0.691%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 19:55
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 19:55
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.98%E -2.02%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -3.08%E -0.948%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 19:55
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 19:54
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.94%E -0.816%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 19:55
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.57%E -1.43%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 19:55
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -6.06%E -1.92%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 19:54
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 19:54
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.08%E -3.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 19:44
NetBet (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -8.38%E -3.95%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.33%E -2.45%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.55%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-21 19:40
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.24%E -4.40%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.68%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -9.04%E -2.97%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.32%EV -9.24%E -4.40%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -13.72%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -17.99%E -6.54%K -10.28%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-21 19:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27%0.1%2026-03-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27%0.1%2026-03-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-03-21 19:49
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-03-21 19:55
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-03-21 19:54
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.0%2026-03-21 19:55