La scuola delle quote

Sevilla v Real Sociedad

Inizio: 2026-05-04 19:00 UTC

Finale: Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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59 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Sevilla (Casa)

Previsione 39.76%2.52quota equa
EV -0.597%
Vantaggio -0.239%
Kelly -0.398%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
38.36%39.83%39.79%41.03%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.252.362.382.5044.44%42.31%42.02%40.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Real Sociedad (Trasferta)

Previsione 30.77%3.25quota equa
EV -1.52%
Vantaggio -0.475%
Kelly -0.692%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
29.49%30.79%30.75%32.13%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.803.053.053.2035.71%32.77%32.79%31.25%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 29.46%3.39quota equa
EV +0.178%
Vantaggio +0.052%
Kelly +0.074%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.40

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
28.17%29.38%29.46%30.82%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.803.223.253.4035.71%31.08%30.77%29.41%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (59 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.91%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV +0.178%E +0.052%K +0.074%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-04 18:15
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.06%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.00%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.15%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.26%EV -4.18%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.61%EV -2.44%E -0.771%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -1.88%E -0.566%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-04 18:50
Pinnacle2.44I 40.98%NM 39.89%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.70%EV -2.44%E -0.771%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.41%EV -2.47%E -0.747%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:50
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 39.00%EV -0.597%E -0.239%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-04 18:05
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 18:49
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 18:25
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:50
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:50
LowVig.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.80%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -3.36%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 18:40
BetOnline.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.80%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -3.36%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 18:40
Marathon Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54%EV -2.59%E -1.06%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.75%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.71%EV -3.95%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-04 18:45
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 18:20
Codere (IT)2.39I 41.84%NM 39.90%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-04 18:50
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-04 18:40
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-04 18:45
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:44
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -7.36%E -3.16%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 18:45
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 18:25
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:25
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.53%EV -3.98%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 18:49
Bovada2.39I 41.84%NM 39.72%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 18:49
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 39.72%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 18:50
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -5.77%E -2.43%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 18:40
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -1.52%E -0.475%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.62%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:50
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 18:15
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 18:25
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -7.75%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.95%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 18:45
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-04 18:35
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.10%EV -6.75%E -2.23%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.63%EV -6.30%E -1.98%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:33
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 18:45
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:45
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:10
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:10
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:15
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -7.75%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 18:44
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:28
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:30
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-04 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -13.83%E -4.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -17.50%E -6.25%K -9.72%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-04 18:30
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-05-04 18:50
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-05-04 18:50
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-05-04 18:45