La escuela de los momios

Sevilla v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-05-04 19:00 UTC

Final: Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Predicción 39.76%2.52momio equitativo
EV -0.597%
Ventaja -0.239%
Kelly -0.398%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.36%39.83%39.79%41.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.362.382.5044.44%42.31%42.02%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 30.77%3.25momio equitativo
EV -1.52%
Ventaja -0.475%
Kelly -0.692%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.49%30.79%30.75%32.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.053.053.2035.71%32.77%32.79%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.46%3.39momio equitativo
EV +0.178%
Ventaja +0.052%
Kelly +0.074%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.17%29.38%29.46%30.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.223.253.4035.71%31.08%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.91%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV +0.178%E +0.052%K +0.074%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-04 18:15
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.85%EV -2.59%E -1.06%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.00%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.15%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.29%E -0.387%K -0.551%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:45
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.26%EV -4.18%E -1.73%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.61%EV -2.44%E -0.771%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -1.88%E -0.566%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-04 18:50
Pinnacle2.44I 40.98%NM 39.89%EV -2.98%E -1.22%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.70%EV -2.44%E -0.771%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.41%EV -2.47%E -0.747%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-04 18:50
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 39.00%EV -0.597%E -0.239%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.55%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-04 18:05
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-04 18:45
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 18:49
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 18:25
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:50
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:50
LowVig.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.80%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -3.36%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 18:40
BetOnline.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.80%EV -3.38%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -3.36%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 18:40
Marathon Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.54%EV -2.59%E -1.06%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.75%EV -3.06%E -0.971%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.71%EV -3.95%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-04 18:45
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 18:20
Codere (IT)2.39I 41.84%NM 39.90%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-04 18:50
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-04 18:40
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-04 18:45
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:44
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -7.36%E -3.16%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 18:45
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 18:25
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:25
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.53%EV -3.98%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 18:49
Bovada2.39I 41.84%NM 39.72%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 18:49
BetUS2.39I 41.84%NM 39.72%EV -4.97%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 18:50
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -5.77%E -2.43%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 18:40
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -1.52%E -0.475%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 18:45
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.62%EV -5.37%E -2.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:50
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.56%E -2.79%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 18:15
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 18:25
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -7.75%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.95%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 18:45
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 18:45
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-04 18:35
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.10%EV -6.75%E -2.23%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.63%EV -6.30%E -1.98%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 18:33
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 18:45
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:45
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:10
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:10
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.57%E -1.91%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 18:15
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -7.75%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 18:44
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:28
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.66%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-04 18:30
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.55%E -3.72%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.13%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-04 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -10.54%E -4.68%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -13.83%E -4.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -17.50%E -6.25%K -9.72%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-04 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-05-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-05-04 18:50
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-05-04 18:50
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%1.1%2026-05-04 18:45
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-05-04 18:45