La escuela de los momios

Sevilla v Espanyol

Inicio: 2026-05-09 14:15 UTC

Final: Sevilla 2–1 Espanyol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Predicción 47.90%2.09momio equitativo
EV +0.597%
Ventaja +0.284%
Kelly +0.543%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.83%47.93%47.96%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.992.002.1054.64%50.34%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Espanyol (Visitante)

Predicción 22.62%4.42momio equitativo
EV +0.676%
Ventaja +0.152%
Kelly +0.196%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.59%22.64%22.54%24.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.104.104.4526.32%24.37%24.39%22.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.47%3.39momio equitativo
EV -0.382%
Ventaja -0.113%
Kelly -0.161%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.61%29.42%29.50%30.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.183.203.3835.71%31.41%31.25%29.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.33%EV +0.597%E +0.284%K +0.543%G +0.003%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.94%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 14:09
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.57%EV -0.361%E -0.173%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 14:09
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.57%EV -0.361%E -0.173%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 14:10
Unibet (NL)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.95%EV -0.840%E -0.406%K -0.785%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.14%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.91%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 14:09
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.32%EV -1.80%E -0.877%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%EV -3.85%E -0.906%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 13:45
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.57%EV -2.28%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:10
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 46.57%EV -2.28%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:10
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.57%EV -2.28%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:10
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 46.57%EV -2.28%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:09
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 48.03%EV -3.23%E -1.60%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%EV -2.72%E -0.632%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV -2.74%E -0.830%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 13:59
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -3.23%E -1.60%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:09
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -3.23%E -1.60%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -3.23%E -1.60%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 14:09
Pinnacle2.01I 49.75%NM 48.34%EV -3.71%E -1.85%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.39%EV -1.81%E -0.418%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.27%EV -2.15%E -0.648%K -0.927%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 14:05
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.74%E -0.830%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 13:50
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.74%E -0.830%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 13:44
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.81%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 13:49
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 13:34
Codere (IT)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 14:10
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 13:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 13:49
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 13:45
BetMGM2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 13:54
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -11.77%E -3.02%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:44
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:49
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:49
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:44
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -10.64%E -2.69%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 14:09
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -14.03%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -10.11%E -3.31%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 14:09
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -4.19%E -2.10%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -14.03%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -10.11%E -3.31%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 14:09
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.72%EV -4.67%E -2.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.60%EV -2.94%E -0.686%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.68%EV -0.382%E -0.113%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 14:04
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.97%EV -5.15%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -3.85%E -0.906%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 13:54
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.97%EV -5.15%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -3.85%E -0.906%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 13:59
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.84%EV -5.15%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 13:50
Bet Right1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -5.15%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.64%E -2.69%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:45
Bovada1.97I 50.76%NM 47.97%EV -5.63%E -2.86%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 14:05
BetUS1.97I 50.76%NM 47.97%EV -5.63%E -2.86%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 14:09
Betclic (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.18%EV -6.11%E -3.12%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.33%EV -5.10%E -1.58%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 14:09
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.78%EV -6.11%E -3.12%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 14:09
BetRivers1.96I 51.02%NM 47.34%EV -6.11%E -3.12%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.46%EV -7.16%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 13:44
LeoVegas1.96I 51.02%NM 46.84%EV -6.11%E -3.12%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -11.77%E -3.02%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 14:10
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.69%EV +0.676%E +0.152%K +0.196%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.27%E -0.378%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 14:10
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.69%EV +0.676%E +0.152%K +0.196%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.27%E -0.378%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 14:09
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%EV -0.455%E -0.103%K -0.134%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 13:54
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.55%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.86%EV -2.04%E -0.471%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.59%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 13:55
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.55%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.86%EV -2.04%E -0.471%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.59%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 13:49
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.21%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 13:54
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 13:55
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 13:49
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -14.03%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 13:10
Tipico (DE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -2.74%E -0.830%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 13:49
Unibet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 14:10
Winamax (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.79%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.77%E -3.02%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 14:08
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.29%EV -8.50%E -4.45%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 13:54
NetBet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -8.50%E -4.45%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.63%E -2.79%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 13:59
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%EV -8.50%E -4.45%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -10.11%E -3.31%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.37%EV -12.34%E -6.74%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.96%EV -17.48%E -6.24%K -9.71%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 13:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-05-09 14:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-05-09 14:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-05-09 14:10
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-05-09 14:10
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-05-09 13:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-05-09 13:50