Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sevilla v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 19:30 UTC

Final: Sevilla 1–3 Atlético Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sevilla (Local)

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.789%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.94%23.46%23.60%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.064.004.3626.32%24.63%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 48.90%2.05fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.90%49.04%48.80%51.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.942.0054.64%51.68%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.56%3.63fair odd
EV -0.786%
Edge -0.218%
Kelly -0.302%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.50%27.60%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.6031.25%29.49%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sevilla (Local): 23.54%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 48.90%; Draw: 27.56%. For Sevilla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 22.13%EV +2.65%E +0.608%K +0.789%G +0.021%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -7.59%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.81%EV -0.786%E -0.218%K -0.302%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 22.13%EV +2.65%E +0.608%K +0.789%G +0.021%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -7.59%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.81%EV -0.786%E -0.218%K -0.302%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.45%EV +2.42%E +0.555%K +0.721%G +0.017%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%EV -2.21%E -1.10%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-29 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.45%EV +2.42%E +0.555%K +0.721%G +0.017%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%EV -2.21%E -1.10%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.45%EV +2.42%E +0.555%K +0.721%G +0.017%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83%EV -2.21%E -1.10%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%EV +2.42%E +0.555%K +0.721%G +0.017%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%EV -3.67%E -1.86%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 19:25
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV +1.24%E +0.288%K +0.375%G +0.005%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.91%EV -7.59%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:35
1xBet🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.68%EV +0.767%E +0.179%K +0.234%G +0.002%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.04%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.27%EV -1.89%E -0.530%K -0.738%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 19:25
Grosvenor🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.54%EV +0.061%E +0.014%K +0.019%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.87%EV -4.16%E -2.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Pinnacle🎯4.23I 23.64%NM 22.97%EV -0.410%E -0.097%K -0.127%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.58%EV -4.16%E -2.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.45%EV -2.44%E -0.689%K -0.961%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-29 19:15
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 23.16%EV -1.12%E -0.266%K -0.349%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.64%EV -2.21%E -1.10%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-29 19:15
BetUS🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.12%E -0.266%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 19:20
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.12%E -0.266%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:25
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.12%E -0.266%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:25
Bally Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -1.12%E -0.266%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%EV -5.14%E -2.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.36%EV -2.29%E -0.553%K -0.728%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.95%EV -3.18%E -1.61%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 19:24
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.00%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.70%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 19:19
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.00%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.70%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 19:14
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 19:20
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 19:20
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 19:20
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.57%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -10.43%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.47%E -0.846%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.57%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -10.43%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 19:25
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.59%EV -4.16%E -2.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 19:25
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.786%E -0.218%K -0.302%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 19:20
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.26%EV -3.67%E -1.86%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 19:24
betano_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:24
Everygame🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:20
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:24
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:25
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:25
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -7.10%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 19:24
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 19:25
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -10.43%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 19:20
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 19:15
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -5.63%E -2.92%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 19:25
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.47%EV -7.59%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.82%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.47%EV -7.59%E -4.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 19:25
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.57%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.00%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.10%EV -7.10%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -5.75%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 19:23
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.61%E -3.46%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.10%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.85%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 19:25
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.06%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.65%E -2.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 19:20
Bet Right🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.12%E -3.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.10%E -3.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 19:25
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -10.52%E -5.75%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-08-29 19:25
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.56%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-08-29 19:25
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Kalshi4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-08-29 19:20